Solving Global Current Account Imbalance:Blame China or Focus on Manufacturing?An Advanced Human Capital Structure Perspective
Solving current account imbalance caused by the advanced human capital structure is the key to the high-quality development of international economy.Based on the construction of the"current account-human capital structure"sensitivity framework,this paper takes data from 14 manufacturing sectors in 61 countries around the world from 2007 to 2021 as a research sample to systematically examine the impact of national emphasis on manufacturing on current account imbalance caused by the advanced human capital structure.The study finds that national emphasis on manufacturing can solve current account imbalance caused by the advanced human capital structure.The introduction of a manufacturing strategy at the national level significantly reduces"current account-human capital structure"sensitivity by 50.9％,this conclusion is still established after a comprehensive robustness test.Mechanism testing shows that national emphasis on manufacturing can improve the global competitiveness of manufacturing and promote finance to better serve the real economy,thereby effectively restraining current account imbalance caused by the advanced human capital structure.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the aforementioned effects are more obvious for countries with stronger innovation capabilities,higher institutional quality,more abundant labor force,and higher-quality human capital,as well as labor-intensive and low-tech industries.Economic consequences show that after the country attaches importance to manufacturing to solve current account imbalance caused by the advanced human capital structure,it can effectively expand the scale of employment and improve the level of economic growth.The conclusions show that the key to solving global current account imbalance lies in paying attention to manufacturing rather than blaming China.This is of great significance for deeply understanding the root cause of global current account imbalance and promoting the high-quality development of the real economy.
national emphasis on manufacturinghuman capital structureglobal current account imbalance
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
