Spatio-temporal variation and multi-scenario prediction of carbon storage based on the InVEST-PLUS model:a case study of Jiangxi Province
In order to analyze the characteristics of land use change in Jiangxi Province and its impact on ecosystem carbon storage,based on the land type data of Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2020,the PLUS model was used to predict the land type distribution under the natural development scenario,ecological protection scenario and economic development scenario in 2030.The carbon storage of Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2030 was evaluated with InVEST model,and bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed based on land use degree and carbon storage.(1)In the three scenarios,the trend of land use change in the natural development scenario and the economic development scenario is that arable land and forest land decline,and grassland,water area and construction land increase;In the ecological protection scenario,forest land did not increase or decrease compared with 2020,and the growth of grassland,water area and construction land also tended to slow down.(2)The carbon reserves of Jiangxi Province in 2000,2010 and 2020 were 1937.69×106t,1928.90×106t and 1914.83×106t,respectively,showing a decreasing trend.(3)Both the comprehensive index of land use degree and the bivariable Moran's I value of carbon storage are positive,indicating that land use change is closely related to the level of carbon storage.Forest land is the most important land type contributing to carbon storage in the terrestrial ecosystem of Jiangxi Province.In the ecological protection scenario that restricts the transfer of forest land,the risk of carbon storage loss is significantly reduced.Therefore,in order to realize"green Jiangxi",it is necessary to focus on protecting forest land,making active use of construction land,optimizing the structure and layout of land use and other measures to ensure.
land use changemulti-scenario simulationcarbon storagePLUS modelInVEST model
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
