Construction of a Nomogram-based Risk Prediction Model for Peripheral Indwelling Venous Catheter Failure in Adults
Objective To identify the risk factors for peripheral indwelling venous catheter(PIVC)failure in adults,construct a risk prediction model for PIVC failure in adults and test its predictive performance.Methods A total of 1022 patients who were placed with PIVCs in six hospitals within a province from March to April 2021 were selected by convenience sampling.They were divided into the non-failure group(n=336)and the failure group(n=686)based on the incidence of catheter failure.The risk prediction model was constructed using logistic regression analysis,then validated in-house through Bootstrap re-sampling and finally assessed for predictive performance based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)and the Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)goodness-of-fit test.Results The independent risk factors for PIVC failure in adults were as follows:1)nurses qualified for PIVC maintenance through in-hospital training,2)surgical inpatients,3)patients with poor compliance with health education,4)patients with limited mobility on the puncture side,5)use of PIVCs with a gauge size>20 G,6)use of open PIVCs,7)patients complaining of abnormalities,8)infusion of irritant drugs,and 9)total daily infusion volume≥1 500 mL.The ROC of the risk prediction model was 0.731[95%CI(0.700-0.762)].The C-index after in-house validation was 0.722[95%CI(0.691,0.753)]and the H-L test showed χ2=3.414(P=0.755).Conclusion The risk prediction model constructed in this study exhibits good prediction performance and can serve as a valuable tool for the early identification of individuals at high risk of PIVC failure in clinical practice.
万方数据
维普
