Prediction of Potential Wintering Distribution Areas of Mandarin Duck based on Maximum Entropy Model
The aim of this study was to identify the main areas and river sections where mandarin duck(Aix galericulata)overwinter and characterize the effects of environmental factors,such as climatic factors,on the overwintering distribution of this species.In this study,95 data points from wintering occurrence records of mandarin duck were collected,and a total of 74 data points were selected and used for modeling.Maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)was used to predict the potential wintering areas of mandarin duck.The importance of each variable in the model was evaluated using the jackknife test,and the prediction results were tested for accuracy using the area under the curve(AUC value)from the receiver operating characteristic curve and the horizontal coordinates.The results indicated that the model predictions were accurate,the mean AUC value for 10 model runs was 0.971.The sizes of wintering areas with high,medium,and low suitability for mandarin ducks were 6.83× 104 km2,33.41 × 104 km2,and 67.34× 104 km2,respectively.A total of 32 727.27 km of rivers showed high overwintering suitability for mandarin duck,and most of the overwintering areas and rivers with high suitability were concentrated in Hunan,Jiangxi,Zhejiang,Hubei,and Anhui provinces.Precipitation during the driest month,distance to water,and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the main factors affecting the overwintering distribution of mandarin duck.Our findings demonstrated that mandarin duck had a high demand for freshwater habitats and sheltering areas.In light of the dispersed distribution of overwintering sites with high suitability,nature reserves or small nature reserves should be established to protect large overwintering mandarin duck populations.
mandarin duckpotential wintering distribution areamaximum entropy model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
