China Financial Stress Index and Monitoring Effectiveness Evaluation
This paper addresses the weak logical correlation between traditional financial stress indices and economic realities,as well as the difficulty in accurately measuring real-time financial risks due to the use of fixed weights.It proposes to improve the synthesis method of financial stress indices.The theoretical logic of the revised method is more rigorous,and the monitoring effectiveness is significantly enhanced.The test results indicate that the improved financial stress index mostly remains in a low-risk state,with occasional high-risk states coinciding with major financial risk events in China.The identification mechanism is closer to a"trigger-based"approach,making it more sensitive to external shocks and responsive to risk events in a timely manner.The sensitivity and specificity have also improved,making it an effective indicator for monitoring financial risks.
万方数据
维普
