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中国城乡相对贫困的动态识别、测度与变动分解

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重视城乡差异、促进城乡融合是共同富裕目标下相对贫困治理的重点,而精准测度城乡相对贫困状况是相对贫困治理的基础.本文基于2012-2020年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,从强弱相对贫困线的双重视角,分别对中国城镇和乡村相对贫困进行动态识别和测度,并采用Shapley分解方法,量化分析增长、分配和贫困线因素对城乡相对贫困变动的影响效应.研究发现:我国农村相对贫困发生率基本呈现下降趋势,但下降速度在2016年后趋缓;城镇相对贫困发生率先下降后上升,且在城乡差异化强相对贫困标准下,2020年城镇相对贫困发生率高于农村.增长因素对城乡相对贫困发生率的降低起正向作用,但其作用在减弱.贫困线变动因素对相对贫困减少起负向作用.分配因素的减贫作用存在明显的城乡差异,其对农村减贫较多发挥正向作用,且作用日益突显;其对城镇减贫作用由正向转变为负向.
Dynamic Identification,Measurement and Decomposition of Relative Poverty in Urban and Rural China
Attaching importance to urban-rural disparity and promoting urban-rural integration are the key focuses of relative poverty governance under the goal of common prosperity,while accurately measuring the status of relative poverty in urban and rural areas is the foundation of such governance.Based on the data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2012 to 2020,this paper dynamically identifies and measures relative poverty in both urban and rural areas in China from the dual perspective of strong and weak relative poverty lines.Additionally,it employs the Shapley decomposition method to quantitatively analyze the impact effects of growth,distribution,and poverty line factors on changes in urban and rural relative poverty.The study finds that the incidence rate of relative poverty in rural areas generally shows a decreasing trend,but the rate of decline slows down after 2016.In contrast,the incidence rate of relative poverty in urban areas first decreases and then increases and under the strong relative poverty standard with urban-rural difference,the incidence rate of relative poverty in urban areas is higher than that in rural areas in 2020.Growth plays a positive role in reducing the incidence rate of relative poverty in both urban and rural areas,but its effect is weakening.Change in the poverty line has a negative impact on reducing relative poverty.There are significant urban-rural differences in the role of distribution factor in poverty reduction.Specifically,it mostly exerts a positive and increasingly prominent influence on rural poverty reduction,whereas its impact on urban poverty reduction has shifted from positive to negative.

Common ProsperityRelative PovertyWeak Relative PovertyDecomposition of Relative PovertyShapley Decomposition

彭玉婷

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安徽省社会科学院经济研究所 230051

共同富裕 相对贫困 弱相对贫困 相对贫困分解 Shapley分解

国家社科基金后期资助项目

22FJB015

2024

上海经济研究
上海社会科学院经济研究所

上海经济研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.035
ISSN:1005-1309
年,卷(期):2024.(7)
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