Climate Change,Harvest and Grain Price in Southeast Coastal China(1736-1911):A Case Study of Wenzhou Region
This paper studies the impact of climate change and natural disasters on agriculture and economy in the southeast coastal region in China between 1736 and 1911.Based on Wenzhou prefecture,we collect datasets of climate change,disasters,agriculture yield and grain price,and investigate the correlation of climate change and social economic evolution.We find that is was warmer during 1730s and 1830s and a cold phase lasted from 1830s to 1900s.The disasters in Wenzhou prefecture occurred more frequently in cold phases,and mainly with floods.There is a significant correlation between climate change and agriculture yield.Grain yield in warm period is higher than that in cold period.Drought has greater impact on grain harvest than flood.Changes in grain prices are affected in the short term by climate change and natural disasters,as well as by harvest scores.In the long run,grain prices are more determined by social and economic factors such as currency,population and commercialization.
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