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外源性风险溢入对中国系统性金融风险的影响及对策研究

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警惕外源性风险的过度溢入并构建适配防控机制是当前我国风险管理的重要任务之一.本文以金融市场投资者、实体企业和金融机构作为风险溢入中介,阐释了外源性风险溢入引发我国系统性金融风险的渠道,实现了该视角下的风险测度和结构性分析,并基于宏观审慎管理视角提出相应对策.研究发现:外源性风险溢入会引发我国的系统性金融风险;在外源性风险溢入过程中,金融市场投资者和外汇流动性两渠道的风险传导效果呈增强趋势;宏观审慎管理可有效抑制金融机构、实体企业和金融市场投资者对外源性风险溢入的传导效果,但对金融市场投资者的风险传导抑制效果较弱,对外汇流动性渠道的风险抑制效果不显著.
The Influence of Exogenous Risk Spillover on China's Systemic Financial Risk and the Countermeasures
It is one of the main tasks of risk management in China to guard against the excessive spillover of exogenous risks and build an adaptive prevention and control mechanism.This paper takes financial market investors,entity enterprises and financial institutions as the intermediary of risk spillover,explains the formation mechanism of systemic financial risks in China caused by exogenous risk spillover,realizes risk measurement and structural analysis from this perspective,and puts forward corresponding countermeasures based on macro-prudential management.It is found that the spillover of exogenous risks will trigger the systemic financial risks in China;In the process of exogenous risk spillover,the risk transmission effect of financial market investors and foreign exchange liquidity shows an increasing trend;Macro-prudential management can effectively inhibit the transmission effect of financial institutions,entity enterprises and financial market investors on the spillover of exogenous risks,but it has a weak effect on the transmission of risks to financial market investors,ad well as insignificant effect on the risk suppression of foreign exchange liquidity channels.

External shockExogenous risk overflowSystemic financial riskmacro-prudential management

李佳、李大钊、卞泽阳

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上海理工大学管理学院,上海 200093

外部冲击 外源性风险溢入 系统性金融风险 宏观审慎管理

2024

上海金融
上海市金融学会

上海金融

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.912
ISSN:1006-1428
年,卷(期):2024.(7)