Research on Cross-district Transmission Effect of Local Government Debt Risk Based on Complex Network Analysis
This paper is based on the perspective of interregional risk network connection,aiming to comprehensively understand the interregional risk spillover level of China's local government debt,risk triggering mechanisms,contagion paths and influencing factors and other characteristics,with a view to accurately assessing the relevance of the debt risk,regional contagion capacity,and clarifying the direction of risk contagion.Firstly,we identify and construct the inter-city local government debt risk network;secondly,we analyze the basic topological statistical properties of the network based on the complex network algorithm,and identify the regions and prefectural-level cities with systemic importance;finally,we explore the risk triggering mechanism and contagion spillover path in view of the complex structure and multi-scale characteristics of the inter-city local government debt risk network.This paper helps to improve the supervisory authority's risk control ability and the effectiveness of policy regulation,and is of great significance to the prevention of systemic financial risks and the establishment and improvement of macroprudential regulatory framework.
Local Government DebtDebt RiskRisk NetworksComplex Network Analysis
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
