Can Structural Monetary Policy Reconcile Stabilizing Growth with Preventing Risks?An Empirical Study Based on the Perspective of Macro Leverage Ratio
Based on the perspective of macro leverage ratio,this paper empirically examines the time-varying impact of China's structural monetary policies on economic growth and leverage ratios of enterprise sector,household sector and government sector by using a TVP-SV-VAR model,and explores the asymmetric impact of structural monetary policies between high-leverage and low-leverage area system by constructing TVAR models.It is found that,firstly,targeted RRR cut can promote economic growth,but it will lead to higher leverage ratios in all sectors in the medium and long term.Secondly,targeted refinancing has a significant promotion effect on economic growth,but it increases leverage ratios of enterprises and government in the short term.Its contribution to economic growth enhances in the medium term,leading to stabilization of leverage ratios and reduction of financial risk.Thirdly,targeted liquidity management tools can improve economic growth while decreasing leverage ratio of each sector,reconciling stabilizing growth with preventing risks,with the impact mainly being reflected in the short and medium term.Finally,the promotion effects of targeted RRR cut and targeted refinancing on economic growth weaken in the high-leverage area system,and targeted liquidity management tools can not inhibit the rise of macro leverage ratio effectively.In view of this,structural monetary policy should be further optimized to promote economic growth steadily while mitigation high leverage financial risks.
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