Forecasting model of Platanus powdery mildew disease in Shanghai based on meteorological conditions
Powdery mildew is the main disease of Platanus in Shanghai.Temperature and humidity are the main environmental factors for the occurrence and development of powdery mildew.In order to provide the basis for the prevention and control of Platanus disease,the relationship between powdery mildew disease index and meteorological conditions was analyzed by mathematical statistics method based on Platanus powdery mildew disease index and meteorological data(temperature,relative humidity,etc.)of the same period in Shanghai urban area from 2014 to 2020,and a meteorological forecast model was established.The results indicated that the disease index of powdery mildew was positively correlated with 6-day moving average temperature and minimum relative humidity,with correlation coefficients of 0.36 and 0.29 respectively(P＜0.01).When the 6-day moving average temperature was greater than or equal to 19.2 ℃ for the first time,the powdery mildew began to occur in Shanghai urban area.The meteorological forecasting model of powdery mildew disease index established in this paper had good effects and could be used for daily services,with the fitting effect R2=0.96,RMSE=2.542,and the independent sample test effect R2=0.97 and RMSE=1.661.
PlatanusPowdery mildew diseaseMeteorological conditionForecasting model
万方数据
维普
