In recent years,with the continuous popularization of geothermal energy and enhanced geothermal systems(EGS),there has been an increase in the occurrence of induced microseismic events.To explore the mechanism of seismic activity and identify the potential risks of induced microseismicity in practical engineering,the authors took the hydraulic fracturing site in Haikou City,Hainan Province,as the study area.By collecting rel-evant geological and geophysical(gravity and magnetic)exploration data,a two-dimensional geological model was established,which was used to simulate and analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of the pore pressure and pore elasticity effects on the fault surface.Subsequently,an assessment of the risk of induced seismicity and a pre-diction of the magnitude of the seismicity were conducted.The results show that fluid injection in the study area will lead to changes in the stress on the nearby faults,which may cause minor fault activation phenomena,but the mag-nitude of the resulting earthquakes is low,resulting in a lower engineering risk.
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