Diplomatic Balance,Perception of Controlling Capabilities and Crisis in the Eurasian Region
Amidst the intense strategic competition among great powers,political turmoil in medium-and small-sized states provides opportunities for great powers to gain a competi-tive edge,yet it also has the potential to trigger regional crises.The key feature of this esca-lation trajectory in crises is the direct correlation between the political turmoil in medium-and small-sized states and adjustments in diplomatic inclinations.Then the correlation trig-gers competitive interventions from external great powers and the regional hegemon,leading to an aggravation of the crisis.If medium-and small-sized states maintain continuity and balance in their diplomatic orientations,or if they separate diplomatic issues from political turmoil,theoretically,it contributes to reducing the inclination of external great powers to intervene.The regional hegemon may decide whether to intervene based on their own con-trolling capabilities.Thus,medium-and small-sized states implementing balanced policies have the opportunity to turn the intervention of the regional hegemon into instruments for management,thereby reducing the potential for crisis escalation.By combining the varia-tions in regional hegemons'perceptions of their own controlling capabilities and the adjust-ment or continuation of diplomatic balancing by small states,we can establish an analytical framework for explaining the evolution of crises between manageable and unmanageable.The lessons from the four crises that have occurred since 2020 in I elarus,Kyrgyzstan,Kazakhstan,and Ukraine respectively suggest that political turmoil in medium-and small-sized states does not always lead to intervention by great powers or the escalation of cri-ses.While medium-and small-sized states without political turmoil may still face crises that are difficult to control due to competitive interventions by great powers.By ensuring the con-tinuity and balance of their diplomatic policies,medium-and small-sized states can effec-tively limit the space for great powers'intervention and rivalry,thereby fostering better cri-sis management.
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