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美国亚太安全架构网络化的逻辑——基于推论性网络分析

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冷战后美国在亚太的安全架构始终处于网络化的进程中.该架构以美国力量投射为保障,以盟友和关键伙伴为支点,以安全制度为骨架,推动一系列联盟管理、安全合作与军事部署以服务于美国的地区战略.使用推论性网络分析路径对美国亚太安全架构的时空演化图景进行研究发现,美国霸权护持需求与联盟秩序维持功能的不相符造成的制度缺位是网络化的前提条件,基于国家、双边和结构层次的优先连接、强化连接与网络传递效应则是影响网络演化的主导性因素.在网络效应的影响下,社会性权力大的国家更容易与他国建立更多安全合作关系;相互合作基础深厚的国家间更容易建立新的合作关系;两国深化安全合作关系会受第三方影响,倾向于选择均与第三方建立安全合作关系的国家.冷战后美国亚太安全架构的复合网络化长期表现为一种碎片化的垂直网络架构.这种趋势以社会性权力分布为基础,以双边安全制度为主导,以选择性多边主义为补充,以提升制度化密度和深度为制度扩展方向,通过泛化地理空间来汲取更多的安全网络资源.网络中心地位的竞争是中美战略博弈的重要内容,因此中国需要依靠高质量伙伴关系促进包容性地区安全架构的形成.
The Logic of Networking US Asia-Pacific Security Architecture:A Study Based on Inferential Social Network Analysis
After the Cold War,the US security architecture in the Asia-Pacific has con-sistently been in the process of networking.This architecture relies on US power projection as its foundation,pivots on their allies and key partners,and is framed by security institu-tions to promote a series of strategic coordination,security cooperation,and military de-ployments to serve US regional strategies.An examination of the spatio-temporal evolution of the US Asia-Pacific security architecture by using inferential social network analysis reveals that the mismatch between the US hegemonic protection needs and the alliance order main-tenance function is a precondition for this networking process.The dominant factors influen-cing network evolution are priority connections,strengthened connections,and network transmission effects at the national,bilateral,and structural levels.Under the influence of network effects,countries with significant social power are more likely to establish security cooperation with others;countries with deep mutual cooperation foundations are more likely to form new partnerships;and the deepening of security ties between two countries is influ-enced by a third party,tending towards choices that also maintain security relationships with this third party.The composite networking of the US Asia-Pacific security architecture manifests as a fragmented vertical network structure in the long term.This trend,based on the distribution of social power,dominated by bilateral security institutions,supplemented by selective multilateralism,and aimed at enhancing institutional density and depth as di-rections for institutional expansion,draws more security network resources through general-ized geographical spaces.The essence of the US-China strategic competition lies in the com-petition for network centrality,and thus China needs to rely on high-quality partnerships to promote the formation of an inclusive regional security architecture.

US Asia-Pacific security architecturealliance transformationsecurity in-stitutionsnetwork effectsinferential social network analysis

张耀

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南开大学周恩来政府管理学院(天津 邮编:300350)

美国亚太安全架构 联盟转型 安全制度 网络效应 推论性网络分析

国家社会科学基金青年项目

20CGJ032

2024

世界经济与政治
中国社会科学院 世界经济与政治研究所

世界经济与政治

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.132
ISSN:1006-9550
年,卷(期):2024.(5)
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