Operation Under Mismatch:Life Cycle and Status Quo Evaluation of the Dollar System
In this era of international order change,the status quo and future of the dollar system have once again become the focus of relevant studies.Theoretically speaking,the life cycle of an international monetary system includes four key stages:establishment,sta-bility,mismatch,and disorder,and four periods among these key stages:adaptation,de-velopment,adjustment,and maintenance/reconstruction.According to the life cycle frame-work,the current dollar system exhibits a mismatch.The degree of mismatch can be meas-ured by the ratio between the fundamental conditions of the US dollar and the international status of the US dollar,and there are differences in the mismatch of the dollar's internation-al status vis-à-vis its economic base,governance base,and power base.Using an expert evaluation method to assign weights to different indicators of the three bases of the dollar system and to the various indexes of the level of dollar internationalization,the comprehen-sive degree of dollar system mismatch is measured.It is found that the comprehensive mis-match has been on an overall rising trend in the first two decades of the 21st century.The main reasons are the self-reinforcing effect of the dollar system,the exclusionary effect of the dollar's oligopoly in the international money supply market,and the shielding effect of US hegemony.Based on the changes in the international status and the basic conditions of the US dollar,the dollar system is likely to face four scenarios in the future,which in de-scending order in terms of possibility are balanced decline,system mismatch,system rein-forcement,and reverse mismatch.The life cycle of the international monetary system and the assessment of the present US dollar system are conducive to a more accurate understand-ing of the current situation and problems of the US dollar system,so as to effectively pro-mote the reform of the international monetary system and formulate China's strategy for safe-guarding national and international financial security.
international monetary systemdollar systemlife circlesystem mismatchoperation under mismatch
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