Not All Domestic Variables Are Mediating Variables:Distinguishing Between Media-ting and Moderating Variables In Neoclassical Realism
Neoclassical realism,which builds upon the causal relationships of structural realism,simplistically inserts domestic variables as mediating variables,resulting in two significant methodological flaws in the theory.First,it merely adds system-level and domes-tic factors without demonstrating the interaction between systemic independent variables and domestic mediating variables.Second,it confuses mediating variables with moderating vari-ables,erroneously treating all domestic variables as mediating variables,which has been a direct cause of the ongoing difficulty in effectively integrating domestic variables within neo-classical realism.This paper clarifies the definitions of mediating and moderating variables and their roles in causal mechanisms from a methodological perspective,proposing two re-search pathways in neoclassical realism based on mediating and moderating variables.To better understand the distinction between mediating and moderating variables in practice,this paper uses Australia's policy toward China since 2008 as a case study,constructing a neoclassical realist analytical framework that incorporates both types of variables.Moving forward,neoclassical realism should integrate domestic variables based on the mediating variable research pathway,thereby achieving a more unified and streamlined theory.
neoclassical realismforeign policy analysisresearch methods in interna-tional relationshedging strategyAustralia's policy towards China