Diversionary Theory and Central Asian Border Disputes
Owing to the specificity of territorial issues,border disputes have a serious neg-ative impact on interstate relations.In recent years,border disputes in Central Asia have demonstrated two major trends:escalation and de-escalation.In order to explain the inter-active results of different border disputes during similar periods,this article constructs an analytical framework based on the diversionary theory of war,with behavioral and target choices as independent variables.First,decision-makers make the behavioral choice of di-versionary attention based on their own diversionary intentions and capabilities.Second,di-versionary countries will carefully select target countries with diversionary characteristics,and the measurement of diversionary value and diversionary cost determines the final target choice.Finally,the"demonstration-imitation"mechanism promotes the convergence of dis-pute patterns through the interaction of multiple actors.The analysis of the two cases of bor-der disputes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan/Uzbekistan shows that Tajikistan has a high intent and a strong capacity to divert attention,and finally opts for the diversion of dis-putes,while Kyrgyzstan has a lower intent and ability,so it chooses to claim territory.Uzbekistan has no intention to divert attention.Tajikistan chooses Kyrgyzstan as the target of diversion because the latter is more mature for diversionary disputes than Uzbekistan in terms of diversionary value,checks and balances,alliance constraints,balance of power,and adequacy of information,and because the de-escalation of the dispute between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan has created a sense of relative deprivation in Tajikistan.The dis-pute resolution model between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan provides an effective model for the de-escalation of the border dispute between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.By taking the border disputes of Central Asian countries as a case study,this article attempts to make necessary revisions and improvements to the diversionary theory of war.
Central Asian border disputesdiversionary theory of warterritorial claimsinternational conflictsregional order in Central Asia
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