International Disputes and Domestic Conflict Escalation:Process-Tracing the Moro Separatist Movement in the Philippines
The relationship between domestic conflicts and its external conflicts has attrac-ted significant scholarly attention in the field of international security in recent years.While existing research often focuses on the impact of domestic conflicts on international conflicts,less attention has been paid to the causal effects of international conflicts on domestic con-flicts,particularly conflict escalation.To address this gap,the authors focus on ethnic con-flict as a type of domestic conflict and analyze how international disputes influence the esca-lation of domestic ethnic conflicts.By expanding the classic fully endogenous conflict esca-lation interaction model and using international disputes as the logical starting point of the analysis,the authors discuss how an international dispute,as an exogenous factor,pro-motes the interaction of three intermediate mechanisms(ethnic ideological polarization,in-tra-ethnic solidarity,and the mobilization of material resources by seeking allies)under the influence of two driving factors(historical grievances between domestic ethnic groups and transnational kinship ties).This interaction forms a spiral of conflict escalation,thereby driving the escalation of domestic ethnic conflicts.Specifically,when the homeland govern-ment involved in an international dispute suppresses kin-related ethnic groups abroad,mi-nority ethnic groups within the homeland,especially those with historical grievances against the government,may psychologically align with their transnational kin and express dissatis-faction and resistance to the homeland government.If these minority groups then face fur-ther atrocities or repression by the homeland government,their ideological stance may be-come"polarized,"fostering intra-ethnic solidarity.This,in turn,motivates the group to seek allies and mobilize material resources to oppose the government,ultimately leading to the escalation of ethnic conflict.To validate this theoretical mechanism,the paper employs the process-tracing method to analyze the case of the territorial dispute between the Philip-pines and Malaysia over Sabah,which triggered the escalation of the Moro separatist move-ment in the Philippines.
international disputeethnic conflictconflict escalationtransnational kin-shipinternal-external conflict nexus
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