首页|中国数字经济产业链的规模测度与循环研究

中国数字经济产业链的规模测度与循环研究

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不断做强做优做大我国数字经济,客观上要求对我国数字经济产业链有清楚的判断,以及我国数字经济产业链本身发展要畅通循环.为此,本文编制出中国数字经济产业链投入产出表,测度了中国数字经济产业链的上中下游规模,分析了产业链内部的互动衔接状态、上中下游产业关联和最终需求效应.研究发现:数字经济已成为中国经济增长的重要引擎.在数字经济产业链内部结构上,数字经济上中下游产业规模呈现"哑铃式"形状,数字经济中游与下游产业在需求拉动和供给推动方面出现不甚匹配的情况,在一定程度上影响了数字经济产业链的循环化.在产业结构系数上,数字经济中游产业的影响力系数最大,对国民经济具有较强的辐射作用;数字经济下游产业推动力系数最大,对国民经济发展起到重要的支撑作用.在最终需求的敏感度分析上,数字经济上游和下游产业均是投资依赖型产业,数字经济中游产业是消费、投资、净出 口复合依赖型产业.本文的发现可以为"不断做强做优做大我国数字经济"的国家战略提供学理支撑和政策建议.
Research on the Scale Measurement and Circulation of China's Digital Economy Industry Chain
Compared with the world's major and powerful digital economy countries,the development of China's digital economy is large but not strong and fast but not optimal.Therefore,continuously strengthening,optimizing,and expanding China's digital economy objectively requires a clear judgment of its digital economy industry chain and the smooth development of its digital economy industry chain.Therefore,based on the"Statistical Classification of Digital Economy and Its Core Industries(2021)"released by the National Bureau of Statistics,this article uses China's input-output table data from 149 departments in 2017,153 departments in 2018,and 153 departments in 2020.Under the determination of the classification standards for the upstream,midstream,and downstream industries of the digital economy industry chain,the input-output table of China's digital economy industry chain is compiled to measure the scale of the upstream,midstream,and downstream industries of China's digital economy industry chain and analyze the interaction and connection status in the digital economy industry chain;the correlation between upstream,midstream,and downstream industries in the digital economy;and the final demand effect.The main findings are as follows.First,the digital economy has become an important engine of China's economic growth.However,from the perspective of the internal structure of the digital economy industry chain,the scale of upstream and midstream industries is much larger than that of midstream industries in the digital economy,and the growth rate of downstream industries in the digital economy exceeds the overall growth rate of the digital economy industry chain and the growth rate of GDP during the same period.Moreover,the leading industry in the digital economy industry has shifted from the upstream industry in 2017 to the downstream industry in 2020.It can be recognized that the scale of the upstream,midstream,and downstream industries in the digital economy is"dumbbell shaped,"and there are problems with the circulation of China's digital economy industry chain.The mismatch and disconnect between the demand-and supply-driven industries in the midstream and downstream of the digital economy have affected the cyclization of the digital economy industry chain to some extent.Second,from the perspective of the industrial structure coefficient,the influence coefficient of midstream industries in the digital economy is the highest,indicating that they have a strong radiating effect on the national economy.The driving force coefficient of downstream industries in the digital economy is the highest,playing an important supporting role in the development of the national economy.Further,both the upstream and downstream industries of the digital economy are cycle-sensitive industries,which are greatly affected by the externalities of national economic development.Third,from the sensitivity analysis of final demand,both the upstream and downstream industries of the digital economy are investment-dependent industries,while the midstream industries of the digital economy are consumption,investment,and net export-dependent industries.A comparison of the three major industries reveals that final consumption has the greatest inducing effect on the downstream industries of the digital economy;total investment has a greater inducing effect on both the upstream and downstream industries of the digital economy;and net exports have a greater inducing effect on the midstream industries of the digital economy,which is much higher than the inducing effect of consumption.The midstream industries of the digital economy are seriously uncoordinated by the inducing effects of internal and external circulation.The findings of this article can provide theoretical support and policy recommendations for the national strategy of continuously strengthening and optimizing China's digital economy.

Digital Economy Industry ChainInput-output Table of Digital EconomyIndustry Correlation AnalysisFinal Requirement Analysis

张少华、朱雪冰、陈鑫

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广州大学经济与统计学院

数字经济产业链 数字经济投入产出表 产业关联分析 最终需求分析

国家自然科学基金常规面上项目广东省哲学社会科学规划重大项目全国统计科学研究重大项目(2023)广东省普通高等学校创新团队项目(人文社会科学)

71673253GD22ZDZYJ012023LD0062023WCXTD014

2024

数量经济技术经济研究
数量经济与技术经济研究所

数量经济技术经济研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.069
ISSN:1000-3894
年,卷(期):2024.41(3)
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