Engine of High-quality Economic Development:High-end Manufacturing Development,Human Capital Allocation and Economic Growth
Comparing the divergent growth performance of East Asian and Latin American economies,this study finds that East Asian economies have successfully promoted the upgrading of their manufacturing sector,while the Latin American economies have experienced a"low-end lock"in manufacturing.Moreover,compared with the Latin American economies,the relative density of high-skilled labor in high-end manufacturing was higher in East Asian economies.This contradicts the general intuition that"high-income economies have a higher proportion of service industries and a higher total number of high-skilled labor,and the proportion of high-skilled labor in the service industry should also be relatively higher."This leads to the phenomenon that this study aims to reveal and answers the following question:Why do economies with intensive high-skilled labor in both high-end manufacturing and service industries experience better growth performance?This study constructs a three-sector general equilibrium model encompassing basic manufacturing,high-end manufacturing,and services and incorporates labor heterogeneity.Due to entry barriers in high-end manufacturing,the allocation of high-skilled labor across industries leads to two distinct transition paths—"basic manufacturing-high-end manufacturing"and"basic manufacturing-services."These paths give rise to different trajectories of human capital accumulation and economic growth.The mechanism highlights the development of high-end manufacturing and the allocation of human capital.Specifically,if the threshold for developing high-end manufacturing is lower than the technical level of high-skilled labor in the economy,high-skilled labor will flow into high-end manufacturing,leading the economy to embark on the industrial upgrading path of"basic manufacturing-high-end manufacturing,"leading to more durable and stable economic growth.Conversely,if the threshold for developing high-end manufacturing is too high relative to the technical level of the economy's high-skilled labor,it results in the loss of such labor from the manufacturing sector.This stagnates or even diminishes the development of high-end manufacturing,leading the country on a"basic manufacturing-service industry"upgrade path,thus limiting economic growth potential.Furthermore,this study examines the effects of industrial and educational policies.The findings reveal that dynamically adjustable industrial policies are more effective than fixed industrial policies,while standalone educational policies are ineffective without combining them with industrial policies.This study not only expands research on structural transformation but also provides references for the new development stage of"promoting deep integration of industrial and talent chains."Considering the current problems of the"big but not strong"manufacturing industry and the"structural mismatch"of the labor force in China's economic development process,the policy implications are as follows:First,vigorously develop high-end manufacturing and promote new industrialization.There are high entry barriers for late-developing economies to develop high-end manufacturing,which not only requires higher investment in physical and human capital,but also technical support in the high-tech field,a complete industrial supply chain system,and industries that tolerate innovation.Furthermore,as China ascends the high-end manufacturing value chain,it confronts technological containment and interception challenges from the United States.Therefore,it is crucial to adhere to innovation-driven development,explore the construction of regional artificial intelligence data processing centers,accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry integration clusters,and promote the in-depth integrated development of the digital and real economies.Second,it is important to focus on the alignment of human capital and industrial structure and promote the deep integration of the industrial and talent chains.While emphasizing the accumulation of high human capital,emphasis should also be placed on cultivating the professional skills of human capital,strengthening research on industrial manpower,and improving IT skills,such as big data and deep learning,to match industrial development.Moreover,it is necessary to strengthen the guidance of employment of highly skilled talents,conduct basic research,improve the income level and social status of skilled and craftsman talents,and attract highly skilled talents to enter the manufacturing industry development work.Third,the formulation of industrial policies needs to be adjusted timely according to the development stage and situation of the manufacturing industry.The government should provide certain subsidies during the initial period.However,when the high-end manufacturing industry develops to a certain scale and becomes self-viable,policy withdrawal should be considered.
High-end ManufacturingHuman Capital AllocationIndustrial Structural TransformationCapable Government
NETL
NSTL
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