China's Regional"Domestic and International Dual Circulation":Paths,Characteristics and Comovement Analysis
In April 2020,the Central Committee of the CPC put forward the strategic plan of"constructing a new development pattern in which the domestic cycle is the mainstay and the domestic and international circulations are mutually reinforcing."China is a typical large country.Due to the differences in resource endowment,industrial structure,level of economic development,and open-door policy,there are large differences in various regions'participation in the dual circulation.Therefore,the foremost task in building a new development pattern of dual circulation is to clarify the role,position,and specific paths of each region,as well as the comovement mode between domestic and international circulations.This is of great practical value for accurately grasping the roles and missions of regions in the new development pattern and exploring the precise paths for constructing the new development pattern.This study constructs a regional"dual circulation"measurement model to portray the chain circulation process and value distribution of the dual circulation in China's regional economy.By using an embedded input-output table based on the world input-output data and China's inter-regional input-output table,this study investigates the paths and characteristics of China's regions'participation in the dual circulation from 2002 to 2017 and analyzes China's regional dual circulation comovement based on the value chain specialization.The findings are as follows:First,from 2002 to 2017,the value added generated by China's dual circulation experienced a rapid rise,and China has a typical feature of"local preference,"with domestic circulation playing a dominant role.Specifically,in domestic circulation,intra-regional trade in final goods and LVC are the main sources of value-added,followed by simple NVC.In international circulation,international trade in final goods and simple GVC generate a larger scale of value added.Overall,China is not sufficiently embedded in complex NVC and GVC.Second,each region in the dual circulation is dominated by the domestic circulation,but the specific details and paths vary significantly and indicate a clear geographical distribution.Eastern regions are more involved in the international circulation,while central and western regions are more involved in the domestic circulation.The domestic circulation weakens from the center to the periphery,and the international circulation weakens from the periphery to the center.Third,there are significant differences in the specific paths in the dual circulation by sector.Export-advantaged industries are relatively more dependent on international circulation mainly based on exports of final goods and simple GVC,and traditional industries are relatively more dependent on the domestic cycle,with a high share of participation in the NVC,especially the simple NVC.This suggests that China mainly participates in shallow value chain specialization and lacks deeper cross-regional and cross-border cooperation based on regional comparative advantages.Moreover,there is a type of separation between the domestic circulation and the international circulation of regional sectors.Fourth,the coupling and coordination degree between GVC and NVC in China's manufacturing industry steadily increased during the period but it is still at a relatively low level and has obvious provincial and industry heterogeneity.The analysis results reveal that,except for a few provinces,most provinces still have not realized the coupling and coordination of dual circulation but generally have a good development trend,evolving toward dual circulation comovement.The contributions of this study are as follows:First,by expanding the existing regional value-added decomposition framework,it portrays the specific paths of domestic circulation in more detail;completely decomposes the GDP of each region into eight parts from the perspectives of domestic and international circulations;and completely decomposes the chain circulation process and value distribution of the dual circulation of China's regional economy,providing a theoretical and analytical framework for accurately understanding and analyzing the dual circulation of China's economy.Second,based on the compiled embedded input-output tables,this study analyzes the specific paths and characteristics of China's regions from 2002 to 2017 from the perspectives of domestic and international circulations,providing empirical evidence for accurately identifying the foundation of China's dual circulation as well as the possible blockages and risks.Third,it analyzes the characteristics and evolutionary trends of China's regional dual circulation comovements from the perspective of the value chain specialization by using the coupling and coordination degrees of NVC and GVC.The results provide a theoretical basis and policy suggestions for the construction of a new development pattern.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
