首页|新质生产力水平测算与中国经济增长新动能

新质生产力水平测算与中国经济增长新动能

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新质生产力是中国经济高质量发展的重要着力点.本文基于新质生产力的理论内涵构建了新质生产力的指标体系,利用2012~2022年省级面板数据测度了中国新质生产力水平,并探讨了新质生产力对经济增长的作用机制.研究发现,从时间趋势来看,中国的新质生产力水平正保持快速增长,新型劳动者、新型劳动资料和新型劳动对象等新质生产力的构成要素发展水平也呈稳步增长趋势.从空间分布来看,由于经济基础、产业基础、要素基础等禀赋不同,不同地区之间的新质生产力发展水平存在差异.新质生产力通过优化要素配置和提高产业竞争力等作用机制可以促进经济的显著增长.从地区异质性来看,发展新质生产力有助于缩小区域之间经济增长差距.进一步分析中,通过构建空间杜宾模型对新质生产力的空间效应进行了检验,发现新质生产力不仅能够直接促进经济增长,并且具有显著的空间溢出效应.基于以上研究结论,从政策支持来看,需要不断提高创新要素的供给质量和配置效率,加快发展和培育战略性新兴产业和未来产业;打造区域增长极,发挥新质生产力的溢出效应;锻长板、补短板,因地制宜发展新质生产力.
The Measurement of New Quality Productivity and New Driving Force of the Chinese Economy
New quality productivity is an important focus of China's high-quality economic development.Based on the Marxist productivity theory and the basic connotation of the new quality productivity,this study constructs a measurement index system of the new quality productivity to measure and analyze the level of China's new quality productivity from 2012 to 2022.In terms of the time evolution trend,the level of China's new quality productivity has experienced sustained and rapid growth,and the development level of each physical factor and permeable factor has experienced a positive growth.This study takes the four regions as the basis for grouping,calculates the overall gap of new quality productivity in the four regions using the Theil index,and decomposes it into gaps within and between regions.The study reveals that China's interregional and intraregional new quality productivity imbalance has improved over the past decade.In terms of spatial distribution pattern,by comparing the levels of new quality productivity in different regions,it is found that the new quality productivity in all regions maintains a rapid growth,but there are still large regional gaps,among which the eastern region and the Yangtze River Delta region have always been leading.Furthermore,the movement and change in the constituent elements of the new quality productivity in each region are studied with the radar chart.It is found that the constituent elements of the new quality productivity in each region have different changing states,and the ways of forming and improving the new quality productivity in different regions have their own focuses.The eastern and central regions are driven by new technologies,and weak scientific and technological innovation is the most important factor restricting the high-quality development of the western and northeastern regions.Based on the index calculation,this study empirically tests the impact of new quality productivity on economic growth.The empirical results reveal that improving new quality productivity can significantly increase GDP per capita.Considering the heterogeneous influence of various factors of new quality productivity,it is found that improving corresponding indices,such as new workers,new labor materials,new technology,new industrial organization,and big data,have significantly promoted economic growth.Although the index of labor objects has no promotion effect in the short term,with the increase in countries'demand for new materials and new energy,it is expected to become another source of growth for China's economy.By further examining the mechanism of how new quality productivity promotes economic growth,this study finds that,on the one hand,new quality productivity improves the allocation efficiency of various domestic resources and thus promotes economic growth;on the other hand,it promotes China's position in the international industrial chain and improves industrial competitiveness,thus promoting economic growth.In addition,this study explores the role of new quality productivity in promoting regional coordinated development.It constructs a spatial econometric model to study the spillover effect of new quality productivity and finds that the development of new quality productivity is not only conducive to the growth of the local economy but also has a significant positive spillover effect on adjacent regions.This indicates that a region with a high level of new quality productivity plays the role of radiation pole,actively promoting the overall improvement of new quality productivity in a certain range around it.Based on the above research conclusions,this study puts forward three policy suggestions.First,we should improve the supply quality and allocation efficiency of innovation factors and cultivate the core competitiveness of China's industrial chain.We should optimize the supply structure of various factors,especially innovation factors,such as talents and technology,and enhance the core competitiveness of China's industrial chain in the world.Second,we need to create regional growth poles and give full play to the spillover effect of new quality productive forces.New quality productivity has a significant spatial spillover effect.Third,long plates should be forged and weak plates should be strengthened according to local conditions to develop new quality productivity.All regions should adhere to the principle of adapting measures to local conditions;formulate differentiated regional development strategies in light of resource endowments,industrial structure,and market demand;identify targeted measures;and develop new quality productive forces in line with local characteristics.

New Quality ProductivityEconomic GrowthHigh-quality Development

韩文龙、张瑞生、赵峰

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西南财经大学经济学院

中国人民大学经济学院

新质生产力 经济增长 高质量发展

国家社会科学基金重点项目

23AZD084

2024

数量经济技术经济研究
数量经济与技术经济研究所

数量经济技术经济研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.069
ISSN:1000-3894
年,卷(期):2024.41(6)
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