Industrial Robots,Input-output Linkage and Consumer Welfare:Quantitative Analysis Based on an Open Framework
Driven by both market demand and technological innovation,the field of artificial intelligence centered on industrial robots has achieved rapid development and become the focus of strategic games among countries worldwide.As a strategic technology,the development and application of industrial robots will affect productivity and industrial scale through productivity and substitution effects and affect the trade pattern through terms of trade effect profoundly.Therefore,it is crucial to clarify the impact mechanism of industrial robots on consumer welfare from the perspective of optimization worldwide,exploring their economic effects and promoting consumer welfare.The Chinese government should also initiate and adjust policies related to industrial robots to help boost consumer welfare.With the acceleration of globalization,the deepening of the international division,the increasing level of specialization,and the increasingly close economic ties between various industries in various countries,the use of industrial robots in an industry in a country not only directly affects the price of products in the industry in the country but also indirectly affects the production costs of other industries in the country and other countries through the export of intermediate goods.Thus,changes in consumer welfare worldwide are influenced by both the use of industrial robots and the strength of international input-output linkages.In the context of international input-output linkages,how does the change in the use of industrial robots in China affect consumer welfare worldwide?How much has consumer welfare changed?How much does the change in the use of industrial robots in other countries affect Chinese consumer welfare?What measures can China take to counteract this external shock?This study attempts to answer these questions.This study constructs a theoretical model that includes both industrial robots and input-output linkage.Moreover,it decomposes the welfare effects of industrial robots into direct and indirect effects for the first time,where the indirect effects include terms of trade effects and trade volume effects;estimates exogenous parameters such as the substitution of labor by industrial robots and input-output coefficients;and quantitatively analyzes the welfare effects of industrial robots.Our results reveal that(1)changes in the substitution of labor by industrial robots in 2014 and 2020 led to an increase in consumer welfare in most countries,with Chinese consumer welfare rising by 3.97％and the productivity effects dominating.(2)If the substitution of labor by industrial robots in China increases by 10％,Chinese consumer welfare will increase by 0.54％,and consumer welfare worldwide will increase by an average of 0.0059％.(3)If the substitution of labor by industrial robots in the United States increases by 10％,Chinese consumer welfare will drop by 0.10％,and consumer welfare worldwide will decrease by an average of 0.0201％.(4)An increase in the substitution of labor by industrial robots in China by 1.86％can offset the negative impact of the substitution of labor by industrial robots in the United States and decrease Chinese consumer welfare.The results have several policy implications.First,an increase in the use of industrial robots in China not only enhances its own consumer welfare but also benefits global consumers.Thus,the Chinese government must accelerate the expansion of the application of industrial robots,promote the use of industrial robots in China,and let more groups and countries share the achievements of industrial robot development.Second,an increase in the use of industrial robots in the United States will lead to a decrease in consumer welfare in China.China should strengthen the independent innovation of industrial robots and enhance the use of industrial robots to improve its international competitiveness in this field and build a solid leading position.Third,the use of industrial robots has a noticeably heterogeneous impact on the welfare of different countries.Thus,China should act as a major country,pay attention to the consumer welfare of countries worldwide,promote international cooperation,and foster the use of industrial robots in other countries.
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