Economic Uncertainty,Entrepreneurship and Entrepreneurial Opportunity Inequality
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party pointed out that China's economic development has entered a period of increasing uncertainties,having a profound and significant impact on efficiency and fairness.How to measure China's economic uncertainty,estimate the impact of economic uncertainty on efficiency and fairness,and then formulate policy ideas to alleviate the negative effects of economic uncertainty has become a common concern of all sectors of society.This study combines an economic uncertainty index constructed from 61 economic variables at the provincial level in China and data from the China Family Panel Studies.Based on the theoretical analysis,it examines the impact of economic uncertainty on individual entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial opportunity inequality.First,it found that economic uncertainty reduces operational income,inhibits the establishment of new enterprises,and lowers the probability of individual entrepreneurship.More importantly,economic uncertainty significantly reduces entrepreneurial opportunities for vulnerable groups,represented by those with low human,physical,or social capital,exacerbating entrepreneurial opportunity inequality.Second,in terms of mechanism analysis,on the demand side,economic uncertainty leads to a degradation of household consumption,reduces market potential,and decreases entrepreneurial opportunities.On the supply side,economic uncertainty leads to banks being cautious in lending,increases the financing costs of entrepreneurship,and inhibits entrepreneurial activities.Finally,in terms of policy implications,we find that fully leveraging the advantages of China's super-large-scale market helps alleviate the negative impact from the demand side,while developing digital finance is important to alleviate the negative impact of economic uncertainty on individual entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial opportunity inequality from the supply side.The contributions of this study are as follows.First,it discusses the impact of economic uncertainty on individual entrepreneurship from a micro perspective,expanding the discussion of the mechanisms behind the economic effects of economic uncertainty and filling a gap in the existing literature on the individual level analysis of the impacts of economic uncertainty on the economy.Second,existing literature often uses national-level time series data,which do not reflect regional differences in economic uncertainty,thereby making it difficult to deeply explore the economic impacts of economic uncertainty.This study uses China's provincial economic uncertainty index and conducts empirical analysis,which helps capture the regional variations of economic uncertainty on individual economic behavior and its underlying mechanisms.Third,the study comprehensively discusses the underlying mechanisms from both the demand and supply sides.It also details policy ideas to mitigate the negative impacts of uncertainty from these two perspectives.The policy implications of this study are quite clear.First,while implementing macroeconomic regulation,it is essential to strengthen policy communication between the government,financial institutions,and real enterprises;accelerate the speed of information transfer;reduce risks caused by the uncertainty of economic policies;and ensure the overall stable operation of the economy.Second,it is necessary to fully leverage the advantages of China's vast market size,speed up the establishment of a new development pattern centered on the domestic cycle,and thereby mitigate the negative impacts of economic uncertainty on the demand side.Third,there should be a significant push to advance the development of digital finance,particularly emphasizing the role of digital credit to promote inclusive finance,which will help alleviate the negative impacts of economic uncertainty on the supply side.Finally,the study indicates that economic uncertainty has a more pronounced impact on vulnerable groups,and the scarring effect of unemployment makes it more difficult for these groups to find jobs(including entrepreneurship).Therefore,the government should provide policy support to those significantly affected by economic uncertainty,strengthen specific safety nets,and alleviate the slowdown in economic development during periods of increased uncertainty.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
