How Does the Carbon Peak Target Lead the Low-Carbon Transformation of Cities?Evidence from Quasi-Natural Experiments
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that"promoting the green and low-carbon development of economic and social development is a key link to achieving high-quality development"and promoting the work of"carbon peaking targets"is an urgent need to address the prominent issues of resource and environmental constraints and build a modern harmonious coexistence of man and nature.Therefore,the scientific evaluation of the carbon peaking target plays a leading role in low-carbon transformation and has important practical significance for promoting green and high-quality economic development.This study constructs a delegation-agency framework of the central and local governments,revealing the mechanism through which carbon peak targets lead the low-carbon transition.Based on this,data on the establishment of carbon peak targets were manually collected from the five-year plans of low-carbon pilot cities from 2006 to 2019.Using a progressive double difference model,we found the net impact of carbon peak targets on low-carbon transition.The research results indicate that establishing carbon peak targets can significantly promote low-carbon transition,and its promotional effect has significant heterogeneity due to differences in urban resource endowments,levels of marketization,and whether local governments are facing leadership changes.After a series of robustness tests,including placebo,eliminating other policy interferences,and addressing heterogeneity bias,the research conclusion still holds.The mechanism tests reveal that carbon peak targets promote urban low-carbon transition by increasing the level of green technological innovation and green environmental protection investment.Further research reveals that compared with setting carbon peak targets in a weak time-constrained form,adopting carbon peak targets with strong time constraints weakens their leadership role in urban low-carbon transition.Compared with the existing literature,the contributions of this study are as follows:First,existing research lacks an analysis from the perspective of local government constraints on the impact of local government-set carbon peak targets on low-carbon transition.This article analyzes carbon peak targets and low-carbon transition within the same theoretical framework.Second,a clear theoretical framework between carbon peak targets and low-carbon transition has not been established yet.This study constructs a delegation-agency framework to theoretically analyze the internal mechanisms of local government-set carbon peak targets leading the low-carbon transition.Third,the existing literature mostly focuses on carbon peak target data at the overall level in China,with limited literature obtaining data on carbon peak target establishment at the city level and conducting quantitative research.This study extends the research field to prefecture-level cities and uses a progressive double difference model to identify the policy net effects of carbon peak targets on low-carbon transition.Fourth,existing literature has not deeply examined the heterogeneous impact of different levels of constraint strength of urban carbon peak targets on low-carbon transition.This study expands the analysis to investigate the heterogeneous impact of different levels of constraint strength of carbon peak targets on low-carbon transition.This study makes the following policy recommendations:First,improve the performance evaluation mechanism of local governments to encourage the establishment of carbon peaking targets with weak time constraints,thus assisting urban low-carbon transition.The central government should enhance the performance evaluation mechanism of local governments,weaken the evaluation of the total national economic growth or growth rate,and strengthen the evaluation of green and low-carbon performance.While ensuring the achievement of the national macro carbon peaking targets,the central government should encourage more local governments to set carbon peaking targets within their jurisdictions,especially by encouraging the establishment of targets with weak time constraints,providing more space for localities to promote low-carbon transformation,and coordinating economic development with environmental protection.Second,tailor policies to local conditions and scientifically formulate carbon peaking targets,action timelines,roadmaps,and blueprints with local characteristics,integrating them comprehensively into medium and long-term economic and social development plans to accelerate the green transformation of production and lifestyle.Third,increase green environmental protection investments in cities to provide financial support for urban low-carbon transition.Cities should clarify the direction and focus of green environmental protection investments,continuously optimize the investment environment,establish dedicated green environmental protection funds,improve green financial product and service systems,provide tax incentives,and further broaden the financing channels for green projects to offer long-term,low-cost funding for the development of green and low-carbon industries to accelerate the urban low-carbon transformation process.Fourth,accelerate green technological innovation to continuously empower urban low-carbon transition.Cities should increase investment in education,focus on nurturing innovative talents,and enhance the green innovation supply capabilities of various entities.Emphasize collaborative innovation strategies,support cooperation between enterprises and institutions such as universities and research institutes,enhance enterprises'absorption and re-innovation capabilities of external advanced technologies,ensure the rapid implementation and transformation of green technological innovation achievements by enterprises,strengthen the support capacity of green technological innovation for green and low-carbon development,and help drive urban low-carbon transition.
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