Dynamic Changes and International Comparison of China's Industrial Chain's Exposure to Risk and Its Counterfactual Simulation
The report of the 20th Communist Party of China National Congress pointed out that"we should focus on improving the resilience and security level of the industrial chain supply chain."In the past few years,with the intertwining impact of the Sino-US economic and trade frictions and the COVID-19 pandemic,the global industrial chain system has entered a period of accelerated restructuring.Chinese core technology is being"choked"and its heavy reliance on foreign modern industrial core foundations,as well as other issues,have exacerbated potential systemic risks in the global industrial chain system.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to scientifically measure and assess China's risk exposure in the global industrial chain.On the one hand,it can help us to scientifically identify the sources of potential systemic risks in the industrial chain to accurately identify changes and respond in time,provide buffer time for properly dealing with major risks,and help China's economy achieve safer development.On the other hand,it can help us to determine the direction of global industrial chain layout adjustments,effectively enhancing the autonomous and controllable capabilities of the industrial chain,promoting the high-level development of industrial foundations,and modernizing the industrial chain.This study constructs a measurement method for risk exposure and structure in the global industrial chain and uses the global input-output tables released by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development to systematically investigate the evolution law of China's risk exposure and structure in the global industrial chain from 1995 to 2018.Further,we investigate the potential impact of global industrial chain restructuring on China's risk exposure in the global industrial chain.The main findings are as follows:First,the risk exposure of China's supply side(comprehensive,simple,and complex),industrial chain,and demand side(comprehensive and simple)have generally expanded,and they are consistent with the overall trend of change in the world.Moreover,China's risk exposure in the global industrial chain is not prominent.This indicates that there is ample room for the safe and stable development of China's industrial chain.Second,the market concentration of China's risk exposure in the global industrial chain is relatively high,which means the potential systemic risks that China faces in the global industrial chain are too concentrated.In the future,it is necessary to accelerate the optimization of the layout of the international industrial chain and disperse the potential systemic risks of the industrial chain.Third,China's risk exposure in the global industrial chain varies greatly in each industry,and most industries have expanded.For textile and clothing and leather products(labor-intensive industry)as well as computer and electronic optical products(capital-and technology-intensive industries),the risk exposure of the latter is more prominent.Fourth,the counterfactual simulation results based on global industrial chain reconfiguration indicate that replacing the Sino-US industrial chain with the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)countries can effectively reduce China's risk exposure in the global industrial chain.However,there are no favorable conditions for RCEP countries to completely replace the Sino-US industrial chain.The conclusions of this study have important implications for ensuring the safe and stable operation of China's industrial chain and optimizing the layout of its international industrial chain.The contributions of this study are as follows.First,we decompose the country's risk exposure in the global industrial chain into simple and complex industrial chain risk exposures,providing a methodological basis for systematically describing the basic composition and different performance of a country's risk exposure in the global industrial chain.Second,this study comprehensively reveals the multi-dimensional characteristics of China's risk exposure in the global industrial chain from different levels of countries,bilateral and industry,to provide a factual basis for understanding the sources of risks in China's industrial chain.Third,it quantifies the potential impact of RCEP member countries replacing the Sino-US industrial chain on China's risk exposure in the global industrial chain to provide guidance for China to handle the global industrial chain restructuring properly.Fourth,it generates detailed data on the risk exposure in the global industrial chain to provide rich foundational data for subsequent empirical research.
Global Industrial ChianExposure to RiskStructure DecompositionCounterfactual Simulation
万方数据
维普
