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双向直接投资协调发展对居民消费的影响研究

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双向直接投资协调发展作为高水平对外开放的重要组成部分,能否有效提振居民消费、畅通国内大循环堵点、实现国内国际双循环联动,关乎新发展格局的构建.本文借助中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,全面考察了双向直接投资协调发展对微观家庭消费的影响及其作用机理.研究发现,双向直接投资协调发展对于家庭消费支出具有显著的提升效果,且主要通过增强居民消费能力、降低居民消费成本和促进居民消费意愿三种作用机理实现.进一步研究发现,双向直接投资协调发展的提升效果在海外市场接近度较低、交通基础设施较差、消费文化较保守的地区更为凸显.此外,基于双向直接投资相对强度的讨论表明,外商直接投资和对外直接投资均能提升居民消费水平,且二者的相互影响将增强各自对消费的提升效果.基于消费升级的讨论表明,双向直接投资协调发展在提升居民消费水平的同时,还能够通过增加有效供给、提升需求层次两种渠道助力居民消费升级.本文为推动实施扩大内需战略和高水平对外开放,加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局提供了微观理论基础和政策启示.
Impact of Coordinated Development of Two-way FDI on Household Consumption
In recent years,profound changes in both domestic and external development environments have underscored the urgency of establishing a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other.On the one hand,the slow recovery of the global economy and the rise of anti-globalization trends have led to a significant contraction in external demand,along with weakened investment and exports.Moreover,the expansion of domestic demand and the exploration of China's vast market potential have increasingly highlighted their role in driving economic growth.On the other hand,under high-standard opening-up,China's cross-border investments have evolved into a situation where foreign direct investment(FDI)and outward FDI(OFDI)are equally prioritized.This dual approach has become a critical channel that connects domestic and international markets and resources,serving as an important means to facilitate domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other.Against this backdrop,the coordinated development of two-way FDI is essential for effectively boosting household consumption,alleviating bottlenecks in domestic circulation,and achieving synergy between domestic and international circulations,thereby contributing to the construction of the new development paradigm.This study utilizes data from the China Family Panel Studies to comprehensively examine the impact and mechanism of the coordinated development of two-way FDI on household consumption.It finds that the coordinated development of two-way FDI significantly enhances household consumption expenditure.This effect is achieved through three mechanisms:increasing consumption capacity,reducing consumption costs,and promoting willingness to consume.Further evidence documents that the enhancement effect of the coordinated two-way FDI on household consumption is more pronounced in regions with lower proximity to overseas markets,poorer transportation infrastructure,and more conservative consumption cultures.Additionally,analysis based on the relative intensity of two-way FDI reveals that both inward FDI and OFDI can improve residents'consumption levels,and the mutual influence of FDI and OFDI will enhance their respective effects on residents'consumption.Discussions on consumption upgrading reveal that while enhancing residents'consumption levels,the coordinated development of two-way FDI also contributes to consumption upgrading by increasing effective supply and elevating demand levels.This study offers significant theoretical contributions and policy implications for advancing the strategies for expanding domestic demand and achieving high-standard opening-up,thereby accelerating the establishment of a new development paradigm.First,by deepening the theoretical understanding of the coordinated development of two-way FDI,this study broadens the exploration of its economic impacts,facilitating the positive role of two-way FDI in constructing the new development paradigm.Second,the study enriches the examination of factors influencing both the quantity and quality of household consumption,enhancing the foundational role of consumption in economic development and promoting the implementation of strategies for expanding domestic demand.Third,from the perspectives of consumption capacity,consumption costs,and consumption willingness,this study supplements policy approaches aimed at establishing and improving long-term mechanisms for expanding household consumption.It reveals that the government should prioritize a balanced approach between"bringing in"and"going out,"leveraging the symbiotic and complementary effects of FDI and OFDI to create a synergistic impact on coordinated two-way FDI development.Additionally,it emphasizes the need to organically integrate the strategy of expanding domestic demand with high-standard opening-up,fully harnessing the sustained positive effects of the coordinated development of two-way FDI on household consumption capacity,costs,and willingness,ensuring that residents are not only able to consume but also willing to do so.It also calls for a coordinated approach to high-standard opening-up and high-quality development,utilizing deepened supply-side structural reforms as a leverage point to accelerate the formation of a higher-level dynamic balance between demand-driven supply and supply-created demand.

Two-way FDIHousehold ConsumptionNew Development Paradigm

周阔、梁佳杨、曲植、郜栋玺

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吉林大学东北亚研究中心

吉林大学经济学院

北京大学汇丰商学院

南京农业大学金融学院

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双向直接投资 居民消费 新发展格局

2024

数量经济技术经济研究
数量经济与技术经济研究所

数量经济技术经济研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.069
ISSN:1000-3894
年,卷(期):2024.41(12)