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具有内生变量的分位数样本选择模型的估计方法及应用

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处理非线性模型中的样本选择问题和内生变量问题是计量经济学关注的重点与难点.本文提出采用控制函数法对具有内生变量的分位数样本选择模型进行识别与估计.参考Arellano和Bonhomme(2017),我们将结果方程和选择方程中不可观测扰动项的联合分布建模为Copula函数,修正了分位数样本选择问题所产生的选择偏误.在此基础上,我们提出在结果方程中加入用基函数逼近的控制函数作为额外的解释变量来处理内生变量问题.在处理内生变量问题上,控制函数方法与逆分位数回归相比易于实现,避免了求解非凸目标函数的优化问题.进一步地,我们证明了估计量的一致性与渐近正态性,通过蒙特卡洛模拟给出了该估计量的有限样本结果,并与逆分位数回归进行了比较.最后,我们将该模型应用于分析已婚女性的教育回报率,体现了本模型的实用价值.
Estimator and Application of Quantile Sample Selection Models with Endogenous Variables
The problem of nonrandom sample selection in empirical research is of wide interest.Typically,various unobserved factors affect both individual choice decisions and outcomes,e.g.,an individual's choice of whether to participate in the labor market and the wage received after participating in the labor market,leading to selection bias in estimating models with sample selection problems.For example,in the study of wages and employment,we can only observe the wages of employed individuals,and the decision to enter the labor market is a self-selecting behavior.Thus,traditional measures of returns to education or wage inequality may be biased.In addition to sample selection problems,the presence of endogeneity in explanatory variables caused by simultaneous equations,measurement errors,or omitted variables is also common.Having both problems of sample selection and endogenous variables is common in empirical research in economics.Consider again the classic example of wages and employment,where an individual's decision whether to enter the labor market creates a sample selection problem,while the explanatory variable in the outcome equation,education,is often considered an endogenous variable,and unobservable ability in the outcome equation usually affects education as well.In this study,we propose an estimation method for a quantile sample selection model with continuous endogenous explanatory variables.We use a control function approach to deal with endogenous variables in quantile regression models by including an additional unknown control function in the outcome equation to control for the effects of correlation between the endogenous explanatory variables and the error term in the outcome equation.Thus,we use the control function method to transform a linear quantile regression model with endogenous variables into a partial linear model in the exogenous case.We then approximate the nonlinear part with a series of basis functions,and the partial linear quantile regression model can be easily estimated by minimizing the convex function.Compared with the IQR method,the control function method avoids the optimization of the nonconvex problem.In addition,as the control function method avoids lattice search for the coefficients of endogenous explanatory variables,the control function method can be easily estimated even if the number of endogenous explanatory variables increases.In addition,we correct the sample selection problem by modeling the perturbation terms in the outcome and selection equations as a binary joint distribution(Copula).In practice,we can set the Copula to depend on a low-dimensional parameter vector.The estimation algorithm for the quantile sample selection model with continuous endogenous explanatory variables is divided into four steps:the first two steps are to estimate the control function and the selection equation;in the third step,the parameters of the Copula are given,and then the quantile parameters are estimated using basis function approximation and"rotated"quantile regression,and the nonlinear part is estimated using local quantile regression.Fourth,the Copula parameters are estimated using the method of moments.We apply the method proposed in this study to estimate the returns to education for married women using data from CHIPS 2013.The results reveal that the returns to education for married women range from 5.6%to 17.8%and decrease with increasing quantile levels(understood as unobservable individual ability gains),but increasing years of education still has a significant positive effect on women's earnings,and the estimation results are not significant at the local quantile level but positive.The estimation results are robust when choosing different basis functions and Copula functions,reflecting the application value and robustness of the model proposed in this study.

Quantile RegressionSample SelectionControl FunctionCopula FunctionSeries Estimation

谭黎明、金泽群、张征宇、周亚虹

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上海财经大学经济学院

分位数回归 样本选择 控制函数 Copula函数 级数估计

2024

数量经济技术经济研究
数量经济与技术经济研究所

数量经济技术经济研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.069
ISSN:1000-3894
年,卷(期):2024.41(12)