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信江流域水文情势变化及归因分析

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水文情势演变及归因分析是变化环境下水利发展研究的基础.以信江流域为例,根据信江入鄱阳湖控制站(梅港水文站)1953-2020年实测水文资料,对其近 70年来年平均流量和水位的非一致性变化进行诊断;通过在基准期建立的随机森林模型模拟影响期的流量和水位,利用残差分析方法量化气候变化、人类活动对年平均流量和水位变化的贡献率;针对梅港站水文情势演变特点,提出了一种先采用保证率频率法推求其设计最小通航流量,再通过不同时期的水位流量关系推求变化环境下设计最低通航水位的方法.结果表明:梅港站的年平均流量序列呈微弱的上升趋势,1991年为界的前后 2个子序列的流量差异最大,气候变化起主要作用;年平均水位序列有显著下降趋势,2002年为界的前后 2个子序列的水位差异最大,人类活动起主要作用;当最低通航水位的设计频率为 80%时,2020年(代表现状环境)梅港站 95%和 98%年保证率的最低通航水位设计值较1991年分别下降1.78和1.79 m.研究结果可为变化环境下的航道航运、水资源合理开发利用等提供参考.
Analysis of hydrologic regime change and attribution in the Xinjiang River Basin
The analysis of hydrological regime change and attribution is essential for water resource management in a changing environment.This study focuses on the Xinjiang River Basin and examines the non-coherent changes in annual average flow and water level over a 70-year period,using hydrological data collected from the Meigang hydrological station between 1953 and 2020.A random forest model is employed to simulate flow and water level during the impact period,and the contribution of climate change and human activities to the annual average flow and water level is quantified using the residual analysis method.Considering the evolving hydrological conditions at the Meigang station,a method is proposed to calculate the design lowest navigable water level.This involves using the guaranteed rate-frequency method to calculate the design minimum navigable flow,followed by determining the design lowest navigable water level under changing environmental conditions using water level-flow relationship curves from different periods.The results reveal a weak upward trend in the annual average flow series at Meigang Station,with the largest difference observed between the earlier and later sub-series occurring around 1991,primarily driven by climate change.Conversely,the annual average water level series exhibits a significant downward trend,with the largest difference between the earlier and later sub-series observed around 2002,predominantly influenced by human activities.When considering an 80%design frequency,the design lowest navigable water level at Meigang station in 2020(representing the current environment)is 1.78 m and 1.79 m lower than those in 1991,corresponding to annual guarantee rates of 95%and 98%,respectively.The findings of this study provide valuable insights for navigation,as well as the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in a changing environment.

inconsistency diagnosisattribution analysismachine learningrandom forestsnavigable water levelXinjiang River Basin

段小宁、李国芳、李国文、陈静、冻芳芳、王路

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河海大学 水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098

江西省水文监测中心,江西 南昌 330002

中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,陕西 西安 710065

浙江大学 建筑工程学院,浙江 杭州 310058

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非一致性诊断 归因分析 机器学习 随机森林 通航水位 信江流域

江西省重点研发计划江苏省高等学校"青蓝工程"项目浙江省自然科学基金河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室"一带一路"水与可持续发展科技基金

20212BBG71014LZJWY22D0100022022490911

2024

10.12170/20230421001

水利水运工程学报
南京水利科学研究院 水利部交通运输部国家能源局

水利水运工程学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.756
ISSN：1009-640X
年,卷(期)：2024.(2)
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