Construction a nomogram for prognostic factors in elderly male patients with lung squamous cell carcinoma based on SEER database
Objective To investigate the prognostic factors and predict the survival rate of elderly male patients with lung squamous cell carcinoma through retrospective study.Methods The clinical data of elderly male patients with lung squa-mous carcinoma were collected from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results(SEER)database in the United States,specifically from 2010 to 2017.In total,there were 2,120 cases in the internal validation set and 65 cases in the external validation set.Cox regression and Lasso regression analysis were conducted to identify the prognostic factors for these patients,taking into account their clinical efficacy.The selected prognostic factors were then used to predict the 1-year and 3-year survival rates of elderly male patients with lung squamous cell carcinoma.The nomogram model's per-formance was evaluated through the use of Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,calibration curves,and inter-nal and external validation.Results A total of 11,580 patients were included in the study,with 9,395 patients in the training set,2,120 patients in the internal validation set,and 65 patients in the external validation set.Independent pre-dictors(P＜0.001)included tumor size,tumor site,tumor differentiation,TNM stage,metastatic site,surgery,chemo-radiotherapy,and marital status.After comprehensive consideration,marital status and tumor site were excluded.Conse-quently,a prognostic model was constructed using the remaining seven factors,and the results were presented in the form of a nomogram.The areas under the ROC curve of the 1-year OS and 3-year OS of the internal validation were 0.705(95％CI:0.686-0.713)and 0.733(95％CI:0.702-0.742),respectively.The areas under the ROC curve of the 1-year OS and 3-year OS of the external validation were 0.837(95％CI:0.810-0.856)and 0.700(95％CI:0.690-0.725),re-spectively.These findings indicate that the model is highly distinguishable and accurate.Furthermore,the calibration curve demonstrates good consistency.Conclusions A reliable prognostic model of elderly male patients with lung squa-mous cell carcinoma was preliminarily established by using SEER database,which has high clinical value and can provide reference value for individualized treatment of elderly male patients with lung squamous cell carcinoma.
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