Analysis of Annual Runoff Characteristics of Yingluoxia Based on Wavelet Analysis and Gray Prediction
[Objective] The changing regularity and cycle characteristics of annual runoff of Yingluoxia in Heihe River was researched to provide theoretical and scientific bases for water allocation and water resources management.[Methods] Based on the measured data of runoff from Yingluoxia hydrological station in Heihe River basin during 1944 to 2014,Morlet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall mutation and gray prediction were used to analyze the trend of runoff and its variation characteristics.[Results] Yingluoxia annual runoff had a slight upward trend,the tendency of annual runoff anomaly percentage rate was 2.78％/10 a.Yingluoxia runoff wavelet variance figure had four obvious peaks,in turn corresponding to 43-year,56-year,12-year and 9-year time scales.Among them,the maximum peak is at 43-year time scale,and this is the first major cycle of runoff change.According to the cyclic alternation of main runoff,the Yingluo Gorge basin will be in the period of abundant water in 2020,and the annual runoff is predicted to be 1.843 billion m3.[Conclusion] The annual variation of runoff is obvious and the runoff is increasing in Yingluoxia basin.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
