首页|基于生态位视角的陕西省区域创新生态系统安全测度及预警

基于生态位视角的陕西省区域创新生态系统安全测度及预警

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[目的]分析陕西省区域创新生态系统安全发展状况并对其安全演变趋势进行预警,为实现陕西省区域创新生态系统的经济可持续的高质量发展提供科学依据.[方法]基于生态位视角构建了一个包含开放性、生长性、协同性和可持续性4个维度的区域创新生态系统安全测度指标体系,利用生态位适宜度模型对2011-2020年陕西省区域创新生态系统安全状况进行了测度分析,并利用BP神经网络模型预测2020-2024年陕西省区域创新生态系统安全警情演变趋势.[结果]①陕西省区域创新生态系统安全水平在2011-2020年间总体呈现出稳定上升的态势,表明区域创新发展具有良好的基础和潜力.②陕西省区域创新生态系统安全警情在2020-2024年间将继续保持向好的趋势,但仍呈南北低、中部高的分布特征.[结论]陕西省区域创新生态系统安全状况整体呈现良好的演变趋势,但仍需采取相关措施进一步缩小其区域间的差距从而实现陕西省区域创新生态系统的安全发展.
Security Measurement and Early Warning of Regional Innovation Ecosystem in Shaanxi Province from Ecological Niche Perspective
[Objective]Developing condition and early warning research was studied with regard to the security of Shaanxi regional innovation ecosystem in order to provide a theoretical basis for the safe development of Shaanxi regional innovation ecosystem.[Methods]A security measurement index system of the regional innovation ecosystem was constructed based on the niche perspective that included the four dimensions of openness,growth,synergy,and sustainability.The security status of the regional innovation ecosystem in Shaanxi Province from 2011 to 2020 was measured and analyzed by using a niche suitability model.The BP neural network model was used to predict the evolution trend of the regional innovation ecosystem security alarm in Shaanxi Province from 2020 to 2024.[Results]① The security status of the regional innovation ecosystem in Shaanxi Province showed a steady increase during 2011-2020,indicating that regional innovation development had a good foundation and potential.② The security status of the regional innovation ecosystem in Shaanxi Province would continue to improve from 2020 to 2024,but the status would still be lower in the north and south and higher in the central part of the province.[Conclusion]The security status of Shaanxi regional innovation ecosystem showed an overall good evolution trend,but relevant measures to further narrow the gap between regions should be applied so as to achieve safe development of Shaanxi regional innovation ecosystem will still be required.

ecological nicheecosystem securityniche suitability modelearly warningBP neural network moderegional innovationShaanxi Province

吴艳霞、蒋明月、杨帅帅

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西安理工大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安 710054

生态位 生态系统安全 生态位适宜度模型 预警 BP神经网络模型 区域创新 陕西省

陕西省社会科学资助项目国家社会科学基金一般项目

2020D04421BJY169

2024

水土保持通报
中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所 水利部水土保持监测中心

水土保持通报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.658
ISSN:1000-288X
年,卷(期):2024.44(1)
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