黄河流域内蒙古段碳汇演变模拟及驱动因素分析
Simulating Carbon Sinks and Determining Driving Factors of Inner Mongolia Section in Yellow River Basin
浩日娃 1周瑞平 2胡斯乐 1呼格吉乐1
作者信息
- 1. 内蒙古师范大学,地理科学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特 010022
- 2. 内蒙古师范大学,地理科学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特 010022;内蒙古土地利用与整治工程研究中心,内蒙古呼和浩特 010022
- 折叠
摘要
[目的]探究黄河流域内蒙古段土地利用变化格局对碳汇空间分布的影响,并找出其主要驱动因素,为研究区生态空间发展方向和增汇政策提供依据.[方法]以黄河流域内蒙古段为例,基于2000,2010与2020年土地利用数据,使用InVEST-FLUS模型分析各期碳汇能力变化情况,进而模拟2040年自然发展、生态保护及农业优先3种不同情景下碳储量变化格局,并借助地理探测器找出造成碳汇空间分布差异背后的主要驱动因素.[结果]①2000-2020年,黄河流域内蒙古段碳储量呈先上升后下降态势,碳储量总体增加8.63× 106 t,其中,地下生物碳储量增加3.91 ×106 t,土壤碳储量增加2.28× 106 t.②未来自然发展情景下碳储量继续减少3.92× 106 t,而在生态保护情景下增长2.21×107 t,高于农业优先情景下4.99× 106 t的碳储增量,其中,土壤碳库是造成增量差异的关键.③年平均降雨量、年平均温度的不平衡分布是造成黄河流域内蒙古段各类碳库差异的主要因素.[结论]合理的生态保护政策更符合未来城镇集约化和生态高质量发展要求,未来应重视荒漠化防治工作,推进林草建设,为提升区域生态安全格局和增汇政策提供保障.
Abstract
[Objective]The influence of land use change patterns on the spatial distribution of carbon sinks for the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin was investigated,and the main driving factors behind the spatial distribution of carbon sinks were identified in order to provide a basis for directing ecological spatial development and for developing sink enhancement policies in the study area.[Methods]The study was conducted for the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin.InVEST-FLUS model was used to analyze changes in the carbon sink capacity during each period of the study based on land use data from 2000,2010,and 2020.The patterns of carbon stock changes were simulated in 2040 under three different scenarios(natural development,ecological conservation and agricultural priority),and identified the main driving factors behind the differences in the spatial distribution of carbon sinks with the help of geographic probes.[Results]① From 2000 to 2020,carbon storage for the Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin initially increased and then decreased,with an overall increase of 8.63 × 106 t.Subsurface biological carbon storage increased by 3.91 × 106 t and soil carbon storage increased by 2.28×106 t.② Carbon storage continued to decrease by 3.92 × 106 t for the future natural development scenario,but increased by 2.21 × 107 t for the ecological protection scenario,which was higher than for the agricultural priority scenario(4.99X 106 t).Soil carbon storage was the key factor causing the incremental difference.③ The unbalanced distributions of mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature were the main factors causing differences in the various carbon pools for the Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin.[Conclusion]Reasonable ecological protection policies are more in line with the future requirements of urban intensification and ecological high-quality development.Future attention should be given to preventing and controlling desertification,and to promoting forest and grassland construction so as to improve the regional ecological security pattern and carbon sink enhancement policies.
关键词
碳汇/土地利用/InVEST模型/驱动因素/黄河流域Key words
carbon sink/land use/InVEST model/driving factors/the Yellow River basin引用本文复制引用
基金项目
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2023SHZR0540)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据