2000-2020年广东省耕地面积与粮食生产的时空演变特征

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国家科技期刊平台
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中文摘要：[目的]探究广东省耕地面积与粮食生产时空演变特征,为该区域耕地保护与保障粮食安全的政策制定与实施提供科学参考.[方法]以广东省为研究区,采用变化强度指数、重心迁移轨迹、粮耕敏感度模型等方法,在县域尺度下分析2000-2020年耕地面积与粮食产量的时空变化特征及粮食生产对耕地变化敏感程度.[结果]①2000-2020年广东省有88.71％的县域耕地面积减少,耕地面积减少的县域从珠三角地区不断放射至粤东、粤西和粤北地区.②有78.23％的县域粮食产量下降,粮食产量下降显著的县域主要集中在珠三角地区.③耕地面积与粮食产量的重心迁移方向均表现出"南下西移"的变化趋势,凸显出粤西地区耕地数量与粮食生产对广东省的贡献越来越大.④粮食产量对耕地面积变化具有敏感性的县域数量逐渐增加,具有敏感性的县域越来越集中分布在珠三角、粤东和粤北地区.[结论]广东省耕地面积和粮食产量总体处于减少的趋势,粮食产量对耕地面积变化具有敏感性的县域呈现明显的时空异质性.建议广东省在政策制定上要把握耕地面积与粮食生产变迁规律,一方面因地制宜加强对种粮大县的激励政策倾斜,另一方面分类施策做好耕地保护、粮食生产监测与种粮积极性提高等工作.

外文标题：Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Cropland Area and Grain Production in Guangdong Province During 2000-2020

外文摘要：[Objective]The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of cropland area and grain prodution was determined in Guangdong Province,in order to provide scientific references for the formulation and implementation of policies regarding cropland protection and food security in the region.[Methods]The methods of change intensity index,center of gravity migration trajectory,and sensitivity analysis model of cropland and grain yield were used to determine the spatial and temporal change characteristics of cropland area and grain yield,and the sensitivity degree of grain yield to cropland area changes at the county scale in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2020.[Results]① 88.71％of the counties in Guangdong Province experienced a decrease in cropland area from 2000 to 2020.The counties with decreasing trends in cropland area developed from a concentrated distribution in the Pearl River delta region to a contiguous distribution throughout the entire province.② 78.23％of the counties had a decrease in grain yield,and counties with significant decreases in grain production were mainly concentrated in the Pearl River delta region.③ The centers of gravity of cropland area and grain yield both showed movement trends of"southward and westward".The contribution of cropland area and grain yield in Western Guangdong Province played increasingly important roles in Guangdong Province.④ The number of counties where grain yield was sensitive to changes in cropland area gradually increased over time,and the sensitive counties were increasingly concentrated in the Pearl River delta region and Eastern and Northern Guangdong Province.[Conclusion]Cropland area and grain yield in Guangdong Province had been decreasing over time,and the regions where grain yield were sensitive to changes in cropland area had been continuously expanding.These results suggest that Guangdong Province should focus on the temporal and spatial changes of cropland area and grain production for policy formulation.Based on changes in grain production,more attention should be paid to regions with higher grain yields.However,classified measures should be implemented to protect cropland,monitor grain production,and increase enthusiasm for grain cultivation.

外文关键词：

croplandgrain productionsensitivity modelingspatial and temporal dynamicsGuangdong Province

作者：

冯珊珊、张磊、刘序、胡韵菲

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作者单位：

广东省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所/农业农村部华南都市农业重点实验室,广东广州 510640

关键词：

耕地粮食生产敏感度模型时空演变广东省

基金：

广东省农业科学院创新基金产业专项项目广州市基础与应用基础研究项目广东省农业科学院科技人才引进专项资金项目广东省自然科学基金面上项目

项目编号：

2023102023A04J0923R2022YJ-YB10022021A1515012218

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.03.026

水土保持通报

中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所水利部水土保持监测中心

水土保持通报

CSTPCD北大核心

影响因子：0.658

ISSN：1000-288X

年,卷(期)：2024.44(3)

参考文献量22