2000-2030年多级流域尺度下重庆市林地景观格局碳储量变化
Changes of Forest Landscape Carbon Storage Pattern in Chongqing City Under Multi-level Watershed Scales During 2000-2030
朱诗柔 1牟凤云 1黄淇 1沈祺林1
作者信息
- 1. 重庆交通大学智慧城市学院,重庆 402260
- 折叠
摘要
[目的]分析多级流域林地变化对碳储量变化的影响,预测未来多级流域碳储量变化趋势,为从流域角度的地区林地可持续发展以及碳中和政策实施提供一定的科学依据.[方法]以重庆市为研究区,运用PLUS模型、景观格局指数、生物量扩展因子法、灰色关联度等方法,分析2000-2030年多级流域尺度下重庆市林地与碳储量的时空动态变化,探究了自然情景发展下林地格局变化与碳储量的关联度.[结果]①2000-2020年,林地面积增加3 404.55 km2,主要来自耕地转换;一级流域林地景观格局总体趋向于聚集化与规则化,破碎程度相对减少;二级流域内"区与群"的林地格局变化历史规律与未来趋势方面存在差异;②前20 a,林地碳储量呈现增加—减少趋势,总碳储量增加,其中一级流域洞庭湖水系碳储量增加最多,而二级流域碳储量增量高值区域由北向南移动;③预测2030年总碳储量增加,且与不规则指数具有较强关联度.[结论]不同流域尺度下,不同林地景观格局指数与碳储量的相关性存在差异,未来可以从流域角度出发制定有效措施,提高碳汇效益实现碳中和目标.
Abstract
[Objective]The influences of multi-level watershed forest changes on carbon stock changes were analyzed and the future trend of multi-level watershed carbon stock changes were predicted in order to provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of regional forest land and the implementation of carbon neutral policy at the watershed scale.[Methods]The study was conducted for Chongqing City.We analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamic changes in forest land and carbon storage from 2000 to 2030 at the multi-level watershed scale by use of the PLUS model,landscape pattern indices,biomass expansion factor method,and gray correlation degree.Additionally,we determined the correlation between forest land pattern changes and carbon storage under natural development scenarios.[Results]① Between 2000 and 2020,forest area increased by 3 404.55 km2,primarily due to the conversion of cultivated land.The forest landscape pattern in the first-level watershed showed a tendency towards clustering and regularity,with a relatively reduced degree of fragmentation.There were distinct differences in the historical patterns and future trends of forest landscape pattern changes in the second-level watershed's"district and group".② In the initial two decades,the carbon storage of forest land exhibited an increasing-decreasing trend,resulting in an overall increase.The Dongting Lake system in the first-level watershed experienced the highest increase in carbon storage,and the high-value area of carbon storage increment in the second-level watershed shifted from north to south.④ Total carbon storage was predicted to increase by 2030,and the increase was strongly correlated with the irregular index.[Conclusion]The correlation between the forest landscape pattern index and carbon storage varied at different watershed scales.In the future,effective measures should be developed from a watershed perspective to improve carbon sink benefits and achieve carbon neutrality.
关键词
PLUS模型/生物量扩展因子法/碳储量/多级流域/景观格局动态变化Key words
PLUS model/biomass expansion factor method/carbon storage/multi-level watershed/dynamic change of landscape pattern引用本文复制引用
基金项目
重庆市教委科学技术研究计划项目(KJZD-K202300707)
重庆交通大学研究生科研创新项目(2023S0130)
重庆交通大学研究生科研创新项目(2024S0158)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据