Characterizations and Explanations of Population Shrinkage in Cities:Based on fsQCA Analysis of 21 Prefecture-level Cities in Guangdong Province
Research objective:Based on the population changes,the paper used the census data of 2010 and 2020 to observe the permanent resident population of Guangdong Province,and at the same time used the"household registration-permanent resident"population ratio to identify the causes of the urban population contraction in Guangdong Province.Study method:The fsQCA method.Research results:There are dominant contraction cities with obvious population reduction and hidden contraction cities with large population moving out but not obvious population reduction.The contraction path can be divided into"industry-to-population"decline contraction cities,"industry-to-population"conflict contraction cities and"industry-finance"conflict contraction cities.Conclusion:Economic structural factors are the main reasons for the contraction of cities in Guangdong Province,and the role of economic structural factors needs the subsequent supporting system and policy support.Ecological structure factors and spatial structure factors mainly play an auxiliary role in the process of urban contraction in Guangdong Province,and it is difficult to play a decisive role in explaining urban contraction.Only a systematic combination with economic structure factors is needed to explain urban contraction.
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