首页|基于系统动力学的工业产业经济与碳排放综合分析——以无锡装备制造业为例

基于系统动力学的工业产业经济与碳排放综合分析——以无锡装备制造业为例

扫码查看
原文链接
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
  • 维普
工业作为城市经济增长的主要贡献产业,同时也承担了节能减排的重大压力.了解工业中各产业的能源需求、碳排放量与经济增长间的关系是工业部门共同完成经济增长与节能减排目标的关键问题.以无锡装备制造业为例,以Vensim为平台,建立经济与碳排放综合模型,进行2005～2025年工业产业碳排放与经济增长仿真模拟.模型结果表明,装备制造业能源需求量在模拟时间范围内仍保持增长趋势,至2025年达到4.72×106 tce,年平均增长率为10.31％;相应地,碳排放量在2025年达到17.83×106 t(以CO2计算);能耗强度与碳排放强度在2005～2025年持续下降,2015年后逐渐趋于平缓,在2025年分别下降至0.09×104 t/CNY和0.36×104 t/CNY;装备制造业在模拟时间范围内GDP将保持稳步增长,2025年达到5014×108 CNY,年平均增长率保持在14.27％.敏感性分析结果显示,适当缩减能源实物投入量、提高科研投入、降低高碳能源比重是装备制造业节能减排的最优途径,同时可实现经济增长与缩减碳排放量的双重目的.
System Dynamics Modeling for Economics and Carbon Emission Analysis of Industries: A Case Study of Equipment Manufacturing Industry in Wuxi, China
Industry plays a main contribution industry role in economic growth,but it bear huge pressure in energy saving and carbon reduction at the same time.It is significant to know the inner relationships between energy demand,carbon emission and economic growth of every kind of industry.A system dynamics model was developed in this study using Vensim to model the trends of economics and carbon emission of industry in Wuxi over 2005-2025.The results show that the energy demand in the equipment manufacturing industry within the scope of the simulation time is still keep growth trend,it is predicted to reach 4.72 × 106 tce,and the average growth rate is 10.31％ to 2025.Accordingly,the total carbon emission will reach 17.83 × 106 t in 2025.Both the energy consumption intensity and carbon emission intensity keep descending from 2005 to 2025,gradually leveling off after 2015,and will get 0.09 × 104 t/CNY and 0.36 × 104 t/CNY in 2025 respectively.The GDP of the industry keeps increasing and will reach to 5014 × 108 CNY with 14.27％ growth rate on average.The sensitive analysis suggests that to cut energy physical inventory to some extent,increasing the scientific research input,reducing the ratio of high-carbon energy is the best way to saving energy and carbon emission,at the same time it can realize the dual purpose of economic growth and reducing carbon emissions reducing.

equipment manufacturing industryeconomic growthcarbon emissionsystem dynamics modelVensim

胡玥昕、江洪、王颖、刘玉莉、张金梦、牛晓栋、唐敏忠

展开 >

浙江农林大学浙江省森林生态系统碳循环与固碳减排重点实验室,浙江杭州311300

南京大学国际地球系统科学研究所,江苏南京210093

装备制造业 经济增长 碳排放 系统动力学模型 Vensim

国家自然科学重大基金国家"973"重点基础研究发展规划项目国家自然科学基金高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金国家高技术研究发展计划项目上海市战略性新兴产业重大项目

611901142011CB302705,2011CB302705,2010CB950702 & 2010CB42850341171324201100911100282009AA122001 & 2009AA122005重大2013-14号

2014

生态经济
云南教育出版社

生态经济

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.041
ISSN：1671-4407
年,卷(期)：2014.30(8)
  • 6
  • 9