Peak Prediction of Carbon Emissions in Provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt from the Perspective of Multiple Scenarios
Based on the strategic background of carbon peak and carbon neutral goal,combined with the era initiative of"jointly building a green silk road",taking into account the industrial development trend of provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt,using the STIRPAT expansion model,this study builds a prediction model of carbon emissions and various influencing factors,and further sets different scenarios to predict the carbon peak trend of provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2021 to 2040.Results show that:(1)The level of energy consumption has the greatest impact on carbon emissions,and is the most important factor affecting the carbon peak of provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt.(2)Under the scenario of technological breakthroughs,the region along the Silk Road Economic Belt will reach the peak of carbon in 2030,with a peak of 4 808.43×106 tons;Under the scenarios of policy regulation and digital economy,the region along the Silk Road Economic Belt will reach its carbon peak in 2035,with the peak value of 5 519.46×106 tons and 4 988.32×106 tons,respectively;Under the baseline scenario,the region along the Silk Road Economic Belt failed to reach the carbon peak.(3)Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi and Xinjiang are key areas of concern for carbon peak.We should speed up the implementation of policies,increase technological breakthroughs,and strengthen the digital economy to ensure that carbon peak can be achieved as scheduled.
Green Silk Road Economic Belttechnological breakthroughsdigital economycarbon peakscenario prediction
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NSTL
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