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社会福利水平与资源消耗耦合协调的时空演化及驱动因素

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基于2004-2020年中国省级面板数据,通过构建耦合协调度模型测算社会福利水平与资源消耗之间的协调程度。然后,构建空间杜宾模型实证检验两者耦合协调发展的驱动机制并对各驱动因素的空间效应进行分解。研究结果显示:(1)研究期间内,中国社会福利水平与资源消耗之间的耦合协调度整体呈上升趋势,仅个别年份存在回落现象;西部地区耦合协调度低于东、中部地区,而中部地区后来居上,于2017年反超东部地区;上海、北京耦合协调度一直处于领先水平,天津2015年后耦合协调度递减明显。(2)经济规模、产业结构、技术进步、能源消费结构、能源强度、外商投资以及政府规模显著驱动社会福利水平与资源消耗耦合协调发展。(3)社会福利水平与资源消耗耦合协调发展的过程中对周边地区存在正向空间溢出效应,各驱动因素对耦合协调度的影响也存在空间溢出效应。其中,产业结构、技术进步与能源消费结构的直接效应与间接效应方向相反。
The Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of the Coupling and Coordination between Social Welfare Level and Resources Consumption
Based on China's provincial-level panel data from 2004 to 2020,the coupling coordination degree model is constructed to measure the coupling coordination degree between social welfare levels and resource consumption.Then,this article constructs a spatial Durbin model to empirically test the driving mechanism of their coupled and coordinated development and decomposes the spatial effects of each driving factor.It is found that:(1)During the research period,the coupling coordination between China's social welfare level and resource consumption showed an overall upward trend,with only a few years experiencing a decline;The coupling coordination degree in the western region is lower than that in the eastern and central regions,while the central region later caught up and surpassed the eastern region in 2017;The coupling coordination degrees of Shanghai and Beijing are at the leading level,while the coupling coordination degree in Tianjin has decreased significantly since 2015.(2)Economic scale,industrial structure,technological progress,energy consumption structure,energy intensity,foreign investment,and government scale significantly drive the coupled and coordinated development between the social welfare level and resource consumption.(3)In the process of coupling and coordinating development between social welfare level and resource consumption,there is a positive spatial spillover effect on the surrounding areas,and the impacts of driving factors on the coupling coordination degree also have spatial spillover effects.Among them,the direct and indirect effects of industrial structure,technological progress,and energy consumption structure are in the opposite direction.

social welfare levelresource consumptioncoupling coordination degreedriving factorsspatial effect decomposition

王璐、方行明

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成都大学 马克思主义学院,四川 成都 610100

西南财经大学 中国西部经济研究院,四川 成都 611100

社会福利水平 资源消耗 耦合协调度 驱动因素 空间效应分解

2025

生态经济
云南教育出版社

生态经济

北大核心
影响因子:1.041
ISSN:1671-4407
年,卷(期):2025.41(1)