Evaluation and prediction of the sustainable development capacity of the ecologically vulnerable areas of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau based on ecological footprint:A case study of Hainan Tibetan autonomous prefecture in Qinghai province
Hainan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture in Qinghai Province belongs to the ecologically fragile area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.It is an important barrier to maintain the security of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the upper reaches of the Yellow River.Its sustainable development of environment is of great significance to the regional ecosystem security.Based on the statistical data of Hainan from 2008 to 2018,this paper made an empirical study on the state of environmental sustainable development in Hainan through the ecological footprint model,and used the Grey Prediction model to predict the state of environmental sustainable development in Hainan.The results showed that:(1)From 2008 to 2018,the per capita ecological footprint of Hainan Prefecture increased year by year,and the per Capita ecological carrying capacity decreased year by year.The per capita ecological deficit was increasing year by year,and the state of ecological security was deteriorating.(2)According to the type of region,the grassland ecosystem occupied an important position in the ecosystem of Hainan Prefecture.The per capita ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity accounted for a high proportion,and the sustainable development status of the water area had deteriorated significantly.(3)According to the model prediction,if according to the current life and production methods,the state of environmental sustainability in Hainan Prefecture will evolve from being weakly unsustainable in 2018 to medium unsustainable in 2025.
ecological footprintecological carrying capacitysustainable development indexGrey prediction model
万方数据
维普
