The trend analysis of land-use structure change in Zhejiang Province based on CLUE-S Model
The change of land use pattern and its future development scenarios are of great significance to land planning and biodiversity conservation in the provincial area.This article took Zhejiang Province as an example,based on the land use data with the precision of 500 m×500 m in 2013 and 2018,the data of National Park in Zhejiang Province on land,and the data of National Nature Reserves,to set up the scenario of which land-use structure and economic and social development rates maintain the status quo,the scenario of the establishment of the natural protected area system,and the scenario of urban expansion.Eleven influencing factors,such as DEM,slope,and population,were selected as driving factors.The land use and cover pattern of Zhejiang Province in 2018 were fitted by the CLUE-S model and the fitting accuracy was evaluated.Then,the evolution of land use and cover pattern in the study area in 2030 are simulated under three scenarios.The results indicated that 1)Logistic binary regression analysis showed that ROC values were all higher than 0.699,showing that the selected driving factors could explain the land use type accurately.2)Kappa coefficient was as high as 0.9460,showing that the model could accurately simulate the distribution pattern of land use in Zhejiang Province.3)Compared with the situation of land use in Zhejiang Province in 2018,the area and spatial distribution of land use in 2030 under different scenarios will change to a certain extent.Under the scenario of which land-use structure and economic and social development rates maintained the status quo,the area of construction land increased by 16575 hectares;the areas with significant increase were mainly located in the suburbs of Hangzhou and Wenzhou.Under the scenario of the establishment of the natural protected area system,forestland and water area increased 15625 and 1600 hectares,respectively.Cropland,grassland,and construction land were reduced by 1550,1700 and 13975 hectares respectively.All of them showed a uniform change in space.Under the scenario of urban expansion,the area of construction land increased rapidly by 145800 hectares,with most of the increase located on the periphery of the original construction land.Under the three scenarios,the scenario of the establishment of the natural protected area system will be the most suitable land use and land cover pattern in Zhejiang Province in 2030.The area of natural habitats in Zhejiang Province under the scenario of establishing natural protected areas in 2030 will be the largest,with an average annual increase rate of 0.0192%,which will be 6741925 hectares.
land use pattern changedriving factorssituational simulationCLUE-S Model
万方数据
维普
