Influencing factors and potential distribution of Alsophila spinulosa in Southwest China
Alsophila spinulosa sheds light on the speciation and phytogeographic flora,palaeoclimate and species change.Based on 68 locations of A.spinulosa and 21 environmental variables in Southwest China,the influencing factors,spatial distribution and variation rules of potential distribution of A.spinulosa under current and future climate conditions(2050)were predicted by using maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)and GIS software.The results showed that:(1)The environmental factors and their contribution to the potential distribution of A.spinulosa were different under different climatic conditions.Under the current climate,the environmental conditions under the potential fitness probability(p)were higher than 0.5 as follows:the precipitation of driest quarter was 50-68 mm,and that in the warmest season was 480-1000 mm.The precipitation coefficient of variation ranged from 65 to 82.The mean temperature of the wettest quarter was 23-26.5℃,the mean diurnal ranged less than 7.2℃,and annual temperature ranged less than 27.5℃.(2)From present time to 2050,the potential suitable areas of Alsophila spinulosa in Sichuan Basin would move southward,southern Yunnan move northward,and central Guizhou expand eastward as Ⅲ(0.5<p<0.7)and IV(p>0.7).The potential suitable areas of Ⅲ(0.5<p<0.7)and IV(p>0.7)shrank southward in Sichuan Basin,shrank southeastward in southern Yunnan province,and expanded northward from southeast Yunnan province to southwest Guizhou province.(3)From present to 2050,potential suitable areas would show an increase in altitude,an increase in elevation difference.The area of suitable areas with different altitude range decreased,and the potential suitable areas of grade Ⅱ(0.3<p<0.5)increased,while the total area of grade Ⅲ&Ⅳ decreased in southwest China.(4)Precipitation of the driest quarter and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were the main factors affecting the spatial variation of potential suitable areas.The results of this study can provide a reference for the protection of A spinulosa to response the climate change and the selection of protected areas in Southwest China.
climate changepotential distributioninfluencing factorsAlsophila spinulosaSouthwest China
万方数据
维普
