Change characteristics of ecological risk in Gansu Province based on Bayesian Spatio-temporal Model
The temporal and spatial characteristics of ecological risk are important basis for scientific management and control of ecological risk.In the past,the traditional spatio-temporal analysis method of ecological risk change did not fully consider the spatio-temporal correlation.Taking Gansu Province as an example,the ecological risk index(ERI)was calculated based on ecosystem services value(ESV)from 1980 to 2018,and the evolution characteristics of ecological risk were analyzed using Bayesian Spatio-temporal Model(BSTM).The results showed that:(1)ESV decreased first and then increased with 2000 as the boundary,and grassland and cultivated land contributed the most to ESV.(2)The overall trend of ERI was consistent with that of ESV,and the risk increase rate gradually slowed down after 2010.(3)The spatial pattern of ERI was characterized by"high in the south and low in the north,with a transition in the middle".The hot spots were mainly distributed in some regions of Longnan,Longdong and Gannan,while the cold spots were mainly concentrated in Hexi.(4)There were significant regional differences in the local variation trend of ERI.Overall,the trend of ERI increased around Jiayuguan and Lanzhou as the center,and the variation of ERI in Southern and eastern Gansu was stronger than that in Hexi.The hot spots of local variations were mainly distributed in southern and eastern Gansu.
ecosystem services valueecological risktemporal and spatial evolution characteristicsBayesian Spatio-temporal ModelGansu Province
万方数据
维普
