在"双碳"目标背景下，探究重庆三峡库区农业碳排放特征及其驱动因素，可为库区低碳农业发展提供科学依据。采用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的因子法测算2015-2022年重庆三峡库区农业碳排放量，系统分析库区农业碳排放量和强度时空分异特征，利用Tapio脱钩模型分析库区农业碳排放量与农业经济增长的脱钩关系，并进一步运用LMDI(logarithmic mean divisia index)模型解析库区农业碳排放驱动因素。结果表明:重庆三峡库区农业碳排放总量整体呈波动降低趋势，农业碳排放总量从2015年的645。89万t降至2022年的620。74万t，库区农业碳排放主要来源为农田土壤碳排放和畜禽养殖碳排放。库区农业碳排放强度总体呈下降趋势，各区县间碳排放强度差距逐渐缩小。2015-2022年，库区农业经济与农业碳排放量整体上呈脱钩关系。随着农业生产的恢复与发展，农业产值增长，农业碳排放量增加。脱钩关系以2019年为节点表现为由强脱钩向弱脱钩转变。农业生产效率、农业人口规模、农业产业结构对库区农业碳排放量的增长具有抑制作用，而农业经济规模对农业碳排放量的增长则具有促进作用。基于以上结果，本文提出减少禽畜养殖业碳排放量、控制农田土壤利用碳排放量和发挥农业碳排放驱动因素抑制作用等相关建议，以期为库区低碳农业发展提供理论依据。
Decoupling effects and drivers of agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing
Concerning carbon peaks and carbon neutrality goals,exploring the characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions and their driving factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing can provide a scientific basis for developing low-carbon agri-culture in the reservoir area.The agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing from 2015 to 2022 were calculated,the temporal and spatial differences in agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural carbon emission intensity in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing were systematically analyzed,and the decoupling relationship between agricultural car-bon emissions and agricultural economic growth was analyzed using the Tapio decoupling model and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)carbon emission factor method.Furthermore,the logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI)model was applied to analyze the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing.The results showed that the total agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing showed an overall fluctuation reduction trend,and the total agricultural carbon emissions decreased from 6.46×106t in 2015 to 6.21×106t in 2022.The main source of agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing is farmland soil use,enteric fermentation and manure management processes in livestock and poultry farming were also major carbon emission sources.The agricultural carbon emission intensity in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing showed a decreasing trend,and the gap of carbon emission intensity among different districts and counties in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing gradually narrowed.Overall,the decoupling relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing from 2015 to 2022 showed a decoupling relationship.The total value of agricultural production increased,and agricultural carbon emissions rebounded with the recovery and development of agricultural production.The decoupling relationship between agri-cultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions changed from strong decoupling relationship to weak decoupling rela-tionship with 2019 as the turning point.Factors such as agricultural production efficiency,population size,and industrial structure inhibited the growth of agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing,whereas agricultural eco-nomic scale promoted the growth of agricultural carbon emissions.Based on the above results,this study puts forward relevant sugges-tions,such as focusing on reducing carbon emissions from livestock and poultry farming,controlling carbon emissions from farm-land soil use,and exerting an inhibitory effect on agricultural production efficiency,agricultural population size,and agricultural industrial structure on agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing,with the hope of providing a theoretical basis for the development of low-carbon agriculture in the area.
Three Gorges Reservoir Areaagricultural carbon emissionsTapio decoupling modelLMDI modeldriver
万方数据
维普
