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额尔古纳河流域近50年水文气象要素变化分析

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应用预置白处理后的Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法及小波分析方法,分析了额尔古纳河流域20个水文气象站点近50年水文气象要素(气温、降水和径流)的变化趋势以及典型站点降雨量、径流量的多时间尺度特征.同时应用聚类分析方法推算了径流量序列的突变点.结果表明,该区域气温呈现明显升高的趋势,其中海拉尔站可能由于城市化进程的影响气温升高幅度最大.流域年降水总量变化趋势不显著,但某些月份降水量存在明显增加或者减小的趋势,其中显著增加的月份为11、12和1月,显著减小的月份为7、8月;降水趋势显著变化的站点主要分布在该流域的呼伦湖水系和海拉尔河水系.流域年径流量有减少趋势但不显著,然而4、5月份大多数站点径流量出现显著减少趋势.小波分析表明,典型站点年降水量存在25a左右的主周期,年径流量存在20~26a的主周期.各个站点径流量序列的显著跳跃点大都发生在1999年,这与通过小渡分析得出的有关突变点的结论相一致.
Analysis of the Meteorological and Hydrological Change of Argun River Basin in Recent 50 Years
Hie change tendency of hydrological and meteorological factors at 20 stations and the multiple time scale characters of rainfall and runoff at some typical stations were analyzed respectively based on TFPW-MK( Mann-Kendall test with trend -free pre-whitening )and wavelet analysis. Additionally, the jumping point of runoff time series was calculated by cluster analysis. Hie results show that the local temperature is rising apparently especially in the Hailar station possibly due to urbanization. The annual precipitation has no significant variance tendency but the monthly precipitation series indicate the obvious tendency of increase or decrease, including increased significantly in November/December and January and decreased significantly in July and August. These stations are mainly distributed in Hulun valley and Hailar valley. The annual runoff has a decreasing tendency especially in April and May. The wavelet analysis shows that the precipitation has a primary period of 25a and runoff of 20~26a. The jumping point of runoff time series is the year of 1999, which could test the conclusion about mutation through wavelet analysis.

Mann-Kendalltrend analysiswavelet analysismulti-time scaleshydrological and meteorological factorsArgun River

轩玮、李翀、赵慧颖、廖文根

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中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

呼伦贝尔市气象局,内蒙古海拉尔021000

Mann-Kendall 趋势分析 小波分析 多时同尺度特征 水文气象要素 额尔古纳河

科技基础性工作专项项目国家自然科学基金

2007FY210100408650050

2011

水文
水利部水文局 水利部水利信息中心

水文

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.742
ISSN:1000-0852
年,卷(期):2011.31(5)
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