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区域水资源压力指数评估及其适应性分析

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水资源短缺带来水资源压力,制约区域社会经济持续发展.深入探讨水量型水资源压力指数、水质型水资源压力指数和综合水资源压力指数的概念内涵,依据区域需水量预测结果,提出基于水资源贡献率和需水率的改进破产分配方法,对传统破产分配方法进行适应性改进.以广州市为研究区域,应用结果表明:(1)广州市未来阶段(2021-2030年)与当前阶段(2011-2020年)相比,总需水量增加3.13%,其中农业增加0.53%,工业减少30.19%,生活增加57.51%.(2)传统破产分配方法仅考虑分区需水量对水资源进行分配;适应性分配方法综合考虑地区水资源贡献率和需水率,依据总缺水量对水资源进行分配.(3)适应性分配方法下广州市综合水资源压力减少14.3%,综合考虑水量、水质和生态,其明显优于传统破产分配方法.
Evaluation and Adaptability Analysis on Water Resources Stress Index
Water shortage generates water resources stress and restricts the sustainable development of society.The concepts of quantity-induced water stress,quality-induced water stress and comprehensive water stress were clarified.Based on the prediction results of water demand,the improved bankruptcy method,which considers both water distribution and water demand,was pro-posed as an adaptive countermeasure to release water stress.Taking Guangzhou as a case study,the results show that:(1)Com-pared with the current period(2011-2020),the total water demand of Guangzhou in the future period(2021-2030)could increase by 3.13%,in which the agricultural demand by 0.53%,the industrial demand by 30.19%,and the domestic demand by 57.51%.(2)The traditional bankruptcy allocation method only considers districts'water demand;however,the adaptive allocation method considers water resources contribution and water demand of every district,and makes rational allocation according to the total wa-ter shortage.(3)The comprehensive water stress of Guangzhou reduces by 14.3%under the adaptive allocation method.Consider-ing water quantity,water quality and ecology,the adaptive allocation method is superior to the traditional bankruptcy method.

water resources managementwater stressbankruptcy methodadaptability analysis

刘开颜、付湘、刘双郡

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武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉 430074

武汉大学海绵城市建设水系统科学湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉 430074

水资源管理 水资源压力 破产分配方法 适应性分析

国家自然科学基金资助项目国家自然科学基金资助项目

51979199U21A2002

2023

水文
水利部水文局 水利部水利信息中心

水文

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.742
ISSN:1000-0852
年,卷(期):2023.43(6)
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