The Changing Characteristics and Future Prediction of Extreme Precipitation in the Upper Lancang River Basin
In order to explore the changing characteristics of extreme precipitation in the upper Lancang River Basin(ULRB),based on the reanalysis data of China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),this study evaluated extreme precipitation simulation by 10 GCMs'data of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six(CMIP6),correcting the deviation of CMIP6 multi-modal precipitation data based on the total annual precipitation,and on this basis,the changing trend of extreme precipitation in the future periods(recently 2020-2049,forward 2060-2089)was estimated,discussing the reason of its changing trend.The re-sults indicate that:(1)the uncertainty of CMIP6 multimodal extreme precipitation indices decreases after the deviation correction,and the R95p simulation effect of the multi-model ensemble mean is better than that of most single model.(2)In the future,the total precipitation of the research area will increase,with an increase in precipitation days within the year and an increase in pre-cipitation frequency.In 2020-2049,the changing trend of extreme precipitation indices is not significant,and extreme precipita-tion events are showing a decreasing trend;in 2060-2089,especially under high radiation forcing,the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation will show a significant increasing trend.(3)Climate warming leading to regional humidification could be the reason for the increase of extreme precipitation.
CMIP6extreme precipitation indexclimate changethe upper basin of Lancang River(ULRB)
万方数据
维普
