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青藏高原湖泊面积变化规律及影响要素分析

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青藏高原是气候变化的敏感区域,在全球气候变暖的背景下,高原湖泊发生明显变化.本文利用基于青藏高原湖泊遥感数据,分析了 1970 s-2021年青藏高原大于1 km2的湖泊面积的时空变化特征.研究结果表明:(1)青藏高原的湖泊面积和数量均呈现先减少后增加的态势,1995年前大部分湖泊呈现萎缩状态,1995年之后青藏高原湖泊数量(16.5个/a)和面积(472 km2/a)都呈现增加趋势,并在2019年达到最大值.西藏湖泊数量增加远大于青海省湖泊数量的增加.不同面积湖泊中,(1,100]km2湖泊数量增加最迅速,占总增加数量的77.2%.(2)青藏高原湖泊面积与气温的相关性(R=0.821 3)要比与降水的相关性(R=0.584 7)高.其中分区间研究表明,西藏湖泊面积与气温的相关性(R=0.807 2)更好,这与青藏高原的变化规律一致.而青海省则不同,与降水的相关性较高(R=0.679 1),可能是由于西藏地区冰川和多年冻土面积占比较大.
Analysis on Variation of Lakes and Its Influencing Drivers for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is a highly vulnerable region to the impacts of climate change.In this study,the spatio-temporal variations in lake area in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from the 1970s to 2021 were examined,using data from the lakes larger than 1 km2 in Tibetan Plateau dataset.The results show that the area and number of lakes in the region have undergone significant changes,with most of the lakes exhibiting a shrinking trend before 1995,followed by a period of growth thereafter.The number of lakes has increased at a rate of 16.5 lakes per year,with an associated increase in area of 472 km2 per year,reaching a peak in 2019.Notably,the number of lakes with the area of(1,100]km2 has increased the fastest,accounting for 77.2%of the total increase in lake numbers.We also examined the drivers of lake area change in the region.These findings re-veal that the correlation between lake area and temperature(R=0.821 3)is stronger than that with precipitation(R=0.584 7).Fur-ther analysis shows that this correlation is higher in Tibet(R=0.807 2)than in Qinghai Province(R=0.679 1),possibly due to the relatively larger area of glaciers and permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibet region.These findings have implications for the understand-ing of the impacts of climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the future management of water resources.

Qinghai-Tibet plateaulake areaprecipitationtemperature

郝洁、李靖瑄、连子旭、尼玛扎西、张译尹、赵雯颉、邢若飞

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南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029

昆明理工大学津桥学院建筑工程学院,云南 昆明 650106

河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京 210098

西藏自治区水文水资源勘测局阿里水文水资源分局,西藏拉萨 850032

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青藏高原 湖泊面积 降水 气温

国家重点研发计划(十四五)国家自然科学基金

2021YFC3201104202310294012Z

2024

水文
水利部水文局 水利部水利信息中心

水文

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.742
ISSN:1000-0852
年,卷(期):2024.44(1)
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