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不同目标函数对新安江模型参数的敏感性和不确定性影响分析

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目标函数的选择影响流域水文模型的参数率定结果.为深入探究不同目标函数对水文模型参数的敏感性和不确定性及径流模拟结果的影响,本文以福建省金溪池潭流域日径流模拟为例,采用SCEM-UA优化算法率定三水源新安江模型,选择纳什效率系数f1、均方根误差f2和Kling-Gupta效率系数f3作为参数率定的目标函数,同时构建分别偏好f1、f2、f3三者的组合多 目标函数F1、F2和F3共6个率定目标,比较不同率定目标下的径流模拟精度差异,采用Sobol全局敏感性分析方法定量对比分析不同目标函数下的新安江模型参数敏感性,最后基于GLUE方法分析丰枯水期和不同流量级别下的径流模拟不确定性.结果表明:(1)6个目标函数下,新安江模型的主要敏感参数识别结果一致;(2)F1,F2,F3较单目标函数展现出更高的径流模拟精度;(3)在不同水文时期和不同流量级别下,f1表现出较其他目标函数更高的覆盖率和较小的不确定性区间.不同目标函数下均呈现枯水期参数不确定性最小,且随流量级别的增大而径流模拟不确定性增加的规律.
Sensitivity and Uncertainty Impact Analysis of Different Objective Functions on the Parameters of Xin'anjiang Model
The choice of objective function affects the parameterization results of watershed hydrological models.In order to deeply in-vestigate the effects of different objective functions on the sensitivity and uncertainty of hydrological model parameters and the uncer-tainty of runoff simulation results,this paper takes the daily runoff simulation of Jinxi Chitan watershed in Fujian Province as an ex-ample,and uses the SCEM-UA optimization algorithm to rate the three-source Xin'anjiang model,and selects Nash efficiency coeffi-cient(f1),root mean square error(f2)and Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient(f3)are selected as the objective functions of parameter rate,and a combined multi-objective function F1,F2 and F3 with preferences for f,f2 and f3 are also constructed for a total of six rate ob-jectives to compare the differences in runoff simulation accuracy with different rate objectives.And the Sobol global sensitivity analysis method was used to quantitatively compare and analyze the sensitivity of the Xin'anjiang model parameters with different objective func-tions.Finally,this study analyzed the differences in runoff simulation uncertainties with different flow levels and abundant and dry peri-ods based on the GLUE method.The results show that:(1)under six objective functions,the main sensitive parameters of Xin'an River model are identified with the same results;(2)F1,F2,and F3 show higher runoff simulation accuracy than the single objective function;(3)Under different hydrological periods and different flow levels,f1 shows higher coverage and smaller uncertainty intervals than other objective functions.The uncertainty of the parameters in the dry period is minimized under different objective functions,and the uncertainty of the runoff simulation increases with the increase of flow level.

runoff simulationsobol sensitivity analysisXin'anjiang modelGLUEparameter calibration target

李悦、刘冀、杨少康、赵心睿、舒章康

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三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心,湖北宜昌 443002

三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌 443002

南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210098

径流模拟 Sobol敏感性分析 新安江模型 GLUE 参数率定目标

湖北省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目国家自然科学基金

D2021120551609124

2024

水文
水利部水文局 水利部水利信息中心

水文

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.742
ISSN:1000-0852
年,卷(期):2024.44(2)
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