Projected Changes in Flash Drought Characteristics in the Beijiang River Basin under Climate Change Scenarios
Taking the Beijiang River basin(BRB)as the study area,a water cycle model was constructed by coupling the Vari-able Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model with the CMIP5 global climate models.Based on the evaporation and potential evaporation simulations,the flash drought(FD)events in BRB based on the SESR(Standardized Evolutionary Stress Ratio)were identified.Be-sides,the project changes in FD characteristics(frequency,duration,and intensity)and uncertainties during 2021-2050 under three RCP scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5)were evaluated.The results indicate that BRB shows a continuous warming trend,especially under the higher RCP scenarios.Precipitation,evaporation,and potential evaporation are projected to show an overall de-creasing trend,but the decrease in potential evaporation is smaller than that of evaporation.Compared with the baseline(1971-2000),the FD frequency in 2021-2050 is generally characterized by a spatial distribution of decreasing in the west and increas-ing in the east,and the increase in frequency tends to be larger under the higher RCP scenarios(＜80％).The northeastern and southern regions of BRB are expected to encounter FD events with higher intensity and longer duration.The projection uncertainty of different FD characteristics varies greatly,and all exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity.
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维普
